Coaching practices for Base Rate vs Intuition

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Base Rate vs Intuition, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I’m about to make a real decision based on a gut sense that this kind of thing happens "all the time," and I’ve just realized I have no idea how often it actually happens
• One story has completely sold me on something and I’m about to act on it
• My confidence comes straight from how good a story I can tell myself about this particular case, and the more vivid the story the surer I get
• I always build my whole story first
• I’m stepping into something completely new to me, and I’ve done so much reading that I feel like an expert

Practices that may help

1. Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate
   When an event feels common or rare, look up how often it actually happens.
   The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable
2. Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case
   Before judging any individual instance, first establish how often this kind of thing happens in general.
   Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
3. Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
   Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
4. Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel
   Start your confidence estimate from the historical hit rate for this type of prediction, not from how confident you feel.
   Calibration Training
5. Lead with statistics, then interpret with narrative — not the reverse
   Use the base rate as your anchor, then adjust for your specific situation — not the other way around.
   The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable
6. Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience
   In unfamiliar territory, the class distribution should almost entirely govern the forecast.
   The Outside View
7. Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details
   Start your forecast from the class median, then adjust — do not start from your narrative and adjust to the base rate.
   Reference Class Forecasting
8. Know when intuition is unreliable
   Expert intuition is valid only when the domain has regular patterns and you’ve had feedback-rich experience in it.
   Recognition-Primed Decision Making
9. Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment
   Before deciding "this looks like X," ask how common X actually is in the relevant population.
   The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance
10. Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale
    Treat new information as evidence that shifts probabilities, not as proof that changes everything.
    Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds

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