Coaching practices for Counterexample Weight
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Counterexample Weight, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- Whenever a case pops up that contradicts what I believe, my reflex is to wave it away
- I want to lay this recurring thought out and actually weigh it like a fair judge
- I’m so sure I’m right about this that I can’t even picture the other side
- I keep saying things like "X always leads to Y" or "people like that never change," and I pile up examples that fit
- I’m leaning hard on the evidence that lines up with what I want to be true and brushing off the rest
Practices that may help
- Weigh disconfirming evidence more heavily than confirming evidence
One strong counterexample outweighs many confirming examples for a universal claim.
Falsification Thinking - Examine the evidence for and against the thought
Treat the thought as a hypothesis and find the actual evidence on both sides.
Cognitive Restructuring: The CBT Method for Changing Unhelpful Thoughts - Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis
For any belief you are testing, explicitly generate the strongest case for the opposing view.
Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See - Search deliberately for the black swan
Look for the single example that would overturn your generalization.
Falsification Thinking - Evaluate evidence by its likelihood ratio, not by how it makes you feel
Ask how much more likely this evidence would be if you’re right versus if you’re wrong.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Recognize decoys in political and narrative framing
In debates and narratives, an extreme position is often introduced to make a moderate position seem reasonable — identify this before updating.
The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice - Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys
Too many options increase susceptibility to decoys — constrain the comparison set before evaluating.
The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice - Recognize when contrast is being used on you
Awareness of the contrast principle is the antidote — evaluate options against an independent standard, not the presented sequence.
The Contrast Principle, Made Practical - Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
Motivated Reasoning - Invite an adversarial collaborator
Find someone whose genuine prior is the opposite of yours, and work together on the same evidence.
Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See
Related concerns
- Asymmetric Evidence
Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
- Consider The Opposite Debiasing
For any belief you are testing, explicitly generate the strongest case for the opposing view.
Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis
- Disconfirming Evidence
One strong counterexample outweighs many confirming examples for a universal claim.
Weigh disconfirming evidence more heavily than confirming evidence
- One Vs Many Bias
Before adopting a lesson from a success story, build the best possible case for the opposite approach.
Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one
- Seeking Contrary Evidence
Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
- Adversarial Thinking
Find someone whose genuine prior is the opposite of yours, and work together on the same evidence.
Invite an adversarial collaborator
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.