Coaching practices for Reservation Point Estimation
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Reservation Point Estimation, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I land on a number and just go with it, never pausing to ask what’s the most it could possibly be or the least
- I’ve got this negotiation coming up and I’m walking in basically blind
- My guesses never seem to get any better because I make them, find out the real answer, and then just move on
- I build my estimate from my own optimistic story first and only glance at how long these things usually take at the very end as a sanity check
- I tend to blurt out one confident-sounding number and act like it’s solid, when honestly I have no business being that sure
Practices that may help
- Sanity-check against known extremes
Test your estimate against the clearly too-high and too-low bounds to calibrate your range.
Fermi Estimation - Map the likely ZOPA before the first session
Estimate both your own and the counterpart’s reservation points before you open, so you know what deal space exists.
ZOPA: The Zone of Possible Agreement - Track your estimates and calibrate
Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
Fermi Estimation - Fermi Estimation
Fermi estimation is the practice of making rough but principled quantitative estimates by decomposing an unknown into knowable sub-problems, estimating each, and combining them. Named for physicist Enrico Fermi, who was renowned for accurate estimates from minimal data, it is used in science, engineering, and everyday decisions to calibrate intuitions and check whether a number is in the right ballpark — not to achieve false precision. - Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and formalized by Bent Flyvbjerg, improves forecast accuracy by anchoring on the statistical distribution of outcomes for similar past projects rather than on the details of the current one. The method reliably corrects the optimism bias that inflates cost, time, and benefit estimates in planning — the evidence base here is real and specific. - Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details
Start your forecast from the class median, then adjust — do not start from your narrative and adjust to the base rate.
Reference Class Forecasting - Estimate in ranges, not point estimates
Instead of "my estimate is 500," say "I think it is between 200 and 2000."
Fermi Estimation - Anchor on what you know and scale from there
Start from a number you are confident about, then reason to the unknown.
Fermi Estimation - Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
Reference Class Forecasting - Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number
When uncertain, use a pessimistic estimate as your working assumption — not your best guess.
Margin of Safety
Related concerns
- Fermi Estimation When Starting Out
Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
Track your estimates and calibrate
- Bounds On Estimates
Test your estimate against the clearly too-high and too-low bounds to calibrate your range.
Sanity-check against known extremes
- Fermi Estimation After A Setback
Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
- Fermi Estimation As A Caregiver
Fermi estimation is the practice of making rough but principled quantitative estimates by decomposing an unknown into knowable sub-problems, estimating each, and combining them. Named for physicist Enrico Fermi, who was renowned for accurate estimates from minimal data, it is used in science, engineering, and everyday decisions to calibrate intuitions and check whether a number is in the right ballpark — not to achieve false precision.
- Fermi Estimation At Work
Fermi estimation is the practice of making rough but principled quantitative estimates by decomposing an unknown into knowable sub-problems, estimating each, and combining them. Named for physicist Enrico Fermi, who was renowned for accurate estimates from minimal data, it is used in science, engineering, and everyday decisions to calibrate intuitions and check whether a number is in the right ballpark — not to achieve false precision.
- Fermi Estimation On A Budget
Fermi estimation is the practice of making rough but principled quantitative estimates by decomposing an unknown into knowable sub-problems, estimating each, and combining them. Named for physicist Enrico Fermi, who was renowned for accurate estimates from minimal data, it is used in science, engineering, and everyday decisions to calibrate intuitions and check whether a number is in the right ballpark — not to achieve false precision.
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.