Coaching practices for I Catch Myself Rating This as Likely to Work Mostly Because I Want it So Badly the Wanting and the Predicting Have Fused Into One Number and I Can't Tell Anymore How Much of My Confidence is Just Hope
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For I Catch Myself Rating This as Likely to Work Mostly Because I Want it So Badly the Wanting and the Predicting Have Fused Into One Number and I Can't Tell Anymore How Much of My Confidence is Just Hope, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I catch myself rating this as likely to work mostly because I want it so badly
- I talk about the future in flat will-or-won’t terms
- I’m sure that getting this next thing will finally make me happy, but if I’m honest I was just as sure about the last few
- I keep saying I’m certain about this, but the second I imagine actually putting real money on it I get this twist of hesitation
- I get genuinely fired up imagining the goal
Practices that may help
- Separate motivational optimism from your forecast
Let your ambition be honest about what it is — a desired outcome — without contaminating your probability estimate.
The Outside View - Think in probabilities, not certainties
Replace "I think this will happen" with "I think there is a 70% chance this will happen."
Thinking in Bets - Track your desires and their outcomes over time
Log what you wanted this week, whether you got it, and whether getting it produced what you expected.
The Stoic Discipline of Desire - Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence
Would you bet $100 on that belief at even odds? The answer often reveals the gap between claimed and actual confidence.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Mental contrasting (WOOP)
Pair the wished-for outcome with the real obstacle in the way, so optimism drives action.
Optimism Training: Building Realistic, Flexible Optimism - Think and communicate in explicit probabilities
Replace vague language ("probably," "likely") with numerical probabilities.
Superforecasting - Rate each plan on confidence, interest, and coherence
Score each plan on whether you find it engaging, whether you could execute it, and whether it fits who you are.
Odyssey Plans: Designing Three Alternative Futures - Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding
Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Ask: what is the actual probability?
Explicitly estimate the realistic likelihood of the feared outcome — not how it feels, but what the evidence says.
Decatastrophizing, Made Practical - Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
Related concerns
- How To Think In Probabilities
Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding
- How To Think Probabilistically
Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
- Probabilistic Thinking
Bayesian thinking is the practice of holding beliefs as probabilities and updating them systematically when new evidence arrives — rather than treating beliefs as simply true or false. The mathematical framework is well established; the challenge is building the habits of explicit probability estimation and honest belief updating that make it practical.
- Probabilistic Thinking Practice
Bayesian thinking is the practice of holding beliefs as probabilities and updating them systematically when new evidence arrives — rather than treating beliefs as simply true or false. The mathematical framework is well established; the challenge is building the habits of explicit probability estimation and honest belief updating that make it practical.
- When Ambiguity Aversion Distinguish Risk From Ambiguity
Label whether you’re facing known odds or genuinely unknown odds — the right tool depends on the answer.
Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting
- When Expected Value Thinking Enumerate Scenarios
Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
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