Run the basic pre-mortem

Assume the plan failed, then have everyone write down why.

Why it works

Stating the failure as a fact, rather than a possibility, switches the brain from forecasting to explaining — and explaining a known outcome is easier and richer than predicting an uncertain one. This "prospective hindsight" was shown to increase both the number and specificity of reasons people generate, so more real risks come to light.

How to do it

1. Before committing, say: "Imagine it is months from now and this plan failed completely."
2. Have each person independently write the reasons it failed.
3. Pool the reasons, then strengthen the plan against the most plausible ones.

Evidence

Built directly on research into prospective hindsight: imagining an event as certain and explaining it increased the number of correct reasons people generated, which is the basis Klein used to design the pre-mortem. (observational)

The prospective-hindsight finding is real; controlled outcome studies showing the full pre-mortem improves end results are limited.

Sources

• Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), prospective hindsight increased reasons generated for an outcome, J. Behavioral Decision Making
• Klein (2007), "Performing a Project Premortem", Harvard Business Review

Common mistake

Phrasing it as "what might go wrong?" instead of "it already failed — why?" The certainty framing is the active ingredient; without it you’re back to a normal risk review.