Ask “and then what?” three times

Don’t stop at the first consequence — follow the chain at least two steps further.

Why it works

The mind stops at the first vivid, immediate consequence because it is the easiest to simulate, leaving later effects invisible. Explicitly repeating "and then what?" forces sequential simulation of the next links, where the costs and reactions that determine the real outcome usually live. Each iteration pulls a previously hidden effect into view.

How to do it

1. State the decision and its obvious first result.
2. Ask "and then what happens?" and write the second-order effect.
3. Repeat once more for the third-order effect.
4. Judge the decision by the full chain, not just step one.

Evidence

A reasoning heuristic. Its rationale draws on documented limits in how far ahead people naturally simulate consequences and on present bias, both of which favor the immediate effect over downstream ones. (mechanistic)

No outcome trials test "second-order thinking" by name; treat it as a deliberate thinking discipline.

Common mistake

Stopping at the pleasant first-order outcome and never asking what it triggers next — the level where the real cost often appears.