Coaching practices for Assumption Analysis

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Assumption Analysis, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• My conclusion only makes sense because of a bunch of things I’m silently taking for granted about people and how the world works
• My plan feels solid until I notice it quietly depends on a whole stack of things just going my way
• In my head the things I’m sure of and the things I’m just guessing at all run together as one blur, so I end up treating my assumptions like hard limits
• On paper my reasoning checks out, but the conclusion still feels shaky and I can’t locate why
• My conclusion feels airtight and yet something nags at me, and I think it’s that the whole thing only holds if a couple of unspoken things are true

Practices that may help

1. Surface and examine the assumptions you are making
   Name the assumptions filling the gap between the data you selected and the interpretation you reached.
   The Ladder of Inference
2. Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
   Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
   Margin of Safety
3. Separate facts from assumptions explicitly
   Sort what you actually know from what you’re assuming, in two visible columns.
   First-Principles Thinking, Made Usable
4. Surface the hidden premises
   Find the unstated assumptions that the argument needs to work.
   Argument Mapping
5. Surface and test underlying assumptions
   Identify the implicit assumptions that your reasoning depends on and test whether they hold.
   Socratic Questioning
6. Map and stress-test your key assumptions
   Before executing, list the assumptions the plan depends on — then ask which ones would kill it if wrong.
   Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail
7. Test each component probability separately
   Before judging a joint claim, estimate each element on its own, then check whether the conjunction is lower.
   The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely
8. Count the assumptions each explanation requires
   When two explanations fit the facts, count how many unverified assumptions each one rests on.
   Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation
9. Generous Interpretation
   Generous interpretation means defaulting to the most charitable plausible explanation for what someone did — assuming circumstance or misunderstanding before assuming bad character. It’s hard because of the fundamental attribution error: we reliably explain others’ behavior by their character while excusing our own by our circumstances. That asymmetry is one of the better-documented findings in social psychology, and correcting for it defuses a large share of avoidable conflict.
10. Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number
    When uncertain, use a pessimistic estimate as your working assumption — not your best guess.
    Margin of Safety

Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.