Coaching practices for Assumption Counting

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Assumption Counting, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• My conclusion only makes sense because of a bunch of things I’m silently taking for granted about people and how the world works
• I’ve got two stories about why this happened and I keep flip-flopping
• In my head the things I’m sure of and the things I’m just guessing at all run together as one blur, so I end up treating my assumptions like hard limits
• When two things fit together neatly in my head, I treat the whole package as more likely than either piece alone
• My plan feels solid until I notice it quietly depends on a whole stack of things just going my way

Practices that may help

1. Surface and examine the assumptions you are making
   Name the assumptions filling the gap between the data you selected and the interpretation you reached.
   The Ladder of Inference
2. Count the assumptions each explanation requires
   When two explanations fit the facts, count how many unverified assumptions each one rests on.
   Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation
3. Separate facts from assumptions explicitly
   Sort what you actually know from what you’re assuming, in two visible columns.
   First-Principles Thinking, Made Usable
4. Test each component probability separately
   Before judging a joint claim, estimate each element on its own, then check whether the conjunction is lower.
   The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely
5. Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
   Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
   Margin of Safety
6. Recognize that random sequences don’t "owe" balance
   Random processes have no memory — a run of heads doesn’t make tails more likely.
   The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance
7. Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment
   Before deciding "this looks like X," ask how common X actually is in the relevant population.
   The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance
8. Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale
   Treat new information as evidence that shifts probabilities, not as proof that changes everything.
   Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
9. Substitute
   Ask: what component, material, person, process, or rule could be swapped for something different?
   SCAMPER: A Systematic Creativity Technique
10. Surface the hidden premises
    Find the unstated assumptions that the argument needs to work.
    Argument Mapping

Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.