Coaching practices for Base Rate First
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Base Rate First, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- One story has completely sold me on something and I’m about to act on it
- I build my estimate from my own optimistic story first and only glance at how long these things usually take at the very end as a sanity check
- I always build my whole story first
- I keep hearing about the handful of people this worked out for and it’s pulling me in
- I build my whole sense of what’ll happen out of the specifics of this one case and never once ask how often this kind of thing actually turns out that way to begin with.
Practices that may help
- Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information. - Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case
Before judging any individual instance, first establish how often this kind of thing happens in general.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details
Start your forecast from the class median, then adjust — do not start from your narrative and adjust to the base rate.
Reference Class Forecasting - Lead with statistics, then interpret with narrative — not the reverse
Use the base rate as your anchor, then adjust for your specific situation — not the other way around.
The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable - Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success
When a number or story is striking, ask: "Out of how many total cases?"
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Anchor on base rates before adding details
Start with how common the outcome is in the relevant population, then update — don’t start with the story.
The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely - Actively seek disconfirming cases
When researching base rates, specifically look for cases where things went badly — failure cases are underrepresented in natural memory.
The Outside View - Watch for anchoring
Recognize when an arbitrary first number is silently dragging your estimate.
Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable - Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment
Before deciding "this looks like X," ask how common X actually is in the relevant population.
The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance - State your prior probability before seeing the evidence
Before looking at any data, commit to a numerical estimate of how likely something is.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
Related concerns
- Base Rate First Reasoning
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
- Base Rate Question
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
- Base Rate Reasoning
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
- Base Rate Neglect
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
- Base Rate Neglect Why We Ignore The Odds When Starting Out
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
- Base Rate Thinking
Base-rate neglect is the tendency to underweight or ignore prior probabilities (how often things happen in general) when vivid, specific information is available. Identified by Kahneman and Tversky, it is one of the most robustly replicated biases in judgment research, and it leads to systematic overconfidence in predictions about specific cases. Correcting it requires actively looking up or estimating base rates before evaluating individual information.
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