Coaching practices for Compound Probability Plans
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Compound Probability Plans, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- My plan only works if a whole chain of things all go right
- I keep playing out this decision in my head as if there’s just one way it goes
- My plans hold up fine until something throws them off
- My plan feels solid until I notice it quietly depends on a whole stack of things just going my way
- When two things fit together neatly in my head, I treat the whole package as more likely than either piece alone
Practices that may help
- Audit plans for scenario inflation
Before committing to a plan that depends on multiple things going right, count the dependencies.
The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely - Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding
Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Plan for obstacles with coping plans
Anticipate the specific obstacles most likely to block your plan and pre-decide your response to each.
Action Planning - Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Margin of Safety - Test each component probability separately
Before judging a joint claim, estimate each element on its own, then check whether the conjunction is lower.
The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely - Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective
Imagine the project has failed — then ask which base-rate failure type caused it.
The Outside View - Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
Reference Class Forecasting - Think in probabilities, not certainties
Replace "I think this will happen" with "I think there is a 70% chance this will happen."
Thinking in Bets - Pre-identify your temptations before writing the contract
Knowing specifically when and how you’ll be tempted lets you write a contract that covers those scenarios.
Commitment Contracts, Made Practical - Design decisions so they work even if some things go wrong
Ask: does this plan require everything to go right? If so, redesign it.
Margin of Safety
Related concerns
- How Specific Should A Plan Be
Before counting on a plan, check that a stranger could execute it from your written description — if not, it is not specific enough.
Test your action plan for specificity before relying on it
- If Then Risk Plan
If–then plans (also called implementation intentions) specify in advance how you will respond to the specific situations that typically derail your goals: "If situation X occurs, then I will do Y." A meta-analysis of 94 studies found a medium-to-large effect on goal attainment — one of the most reliable single techniques in goal-setting research.
- Black Swan Risk Planning
Reserve capacity for events that are not in your risk model — because the most damaging events usually aren’t.
Build plans with slack for outcomes outside your model
- Conjunction Error Planning
Before committing to a plan that depends on multiple things going right, count the dependencies.
Audit plans for scenario inflation
- Contingency Planning Goals
Anticipate the specific obstacles most likely to block your plan and pre-decide your response to each.
Plan for obstacles with coping plans
- Find The Flaw In Your Plan
Assume the plan failed, then have everyone write down why.
Run the basic pre-mortem
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.