Coaching practices for Forecast Scoring Calibration
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Forecast Scoring Calibration, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
- I want to actually know whether my gut is any good — when I feel sure about something, am I right that often, or am I just confident?
- When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
- My real decisions take months to resolve and matter too much for me to score them honestly, so I never get clean reps
Practices that may help
- Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Calibration Training
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable. - Practice probability calibration
Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions
Use factual trivia questions as a practice ground for calibration — outcomes resolve immediately and the stakes are zero.
Calibration Training - Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
Reference Class Forecasting - Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
Reference Class Forecasting - Calibration practice
Predict your performance before each retrieval test, then compare prediction to outcome.
Self-Regulated Learning: Taking Control of How You Learn
Related concerns
- Forecasting Accuracy Practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
- Calibration Control Classification
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration Training After A Loss
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration Training When Starting Out
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Confidence Calibration
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Confidence Calibration Under Ambiguity
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.