Coaching practices for How to Make Better Forecasts

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For How to Make Better Forecasts, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• Each project wraps up and I move straight on without ever writing down what I’d guessed versus what actually happened
• New information keeps arriving that should obviously move my estimate, but I just cling to the date I first committed to
• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
• I catch myself shaving down the estimate I’m about to present

Practices that may help

1. Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
   Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
   Reference Class Forecasting
2. Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives
   Treat your forecast as a probability that should shift with each new piece of evidence, not a commitment that survives contradiction.
   Reference Class Forecasting
3. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
4. Reference Class Forecasting
   Reference class forecasting, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and formalized by Bent Flyvbjerg, improves forecast accuracy by anchoring on the statistical distribution of outcomes for similar past projects rather than on the details of the current one. The method reliably corrects the optimism bias that inflates cost, time, and benefit estimates in planning — the evidence base here is real and specific.
5. Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
   Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
   Superforecasting
6. Superforecasting
   Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
7. Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation
   Recognize that some forecast inflation is genuine bias and some is deliberate spin — they require different fixes.
   Reference Class Forecasting
8. Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
   Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
   Reference Class Forecasting
9. Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details
   Start your forecast from the class median, then adjust — do not start from your narrative and adjust to the base rate.
   Reference Class Forecasting
10. Track your estimates and calibrate
    Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
    Fermi Estimation

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