Superforecasting
The habits, mindset, and calibration practices of the world’s most accurate forecasters
How do superforecasters make more accurate predictions than experts?
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
In the Good Judgment Project, Tetlock and colleagues ran the largest forecasting tournament in history and found something unexpected: a small group of non-expert volunteers outperformed CIA analysts with access to classified intelligence. The superforecasters were not smarter overall — they deployed a specific set of cognitive practices that most people can adopt. Below are those practices, with the mechanism behind each and an honest account of the evidence.
Practices
- Think and communicate in explicit probabilities
Replace vague language ("probably," "likely") with numerical probabilities.
- Update beliefs frequently and in small increments
When new evidence arrives, adjust your probability estimate — even if the change is small.
- Actively seek disconfirming evidence
Deliberately look for evidence that your current belief is wrong.
- Decompose complex questions into sub-questions
Break a hard forecasting question into smaller, estimable pieces and aggregate them.
- Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
- Use structured team forecasting to aggregate diverse views
Combine independent estimates from multiple people before the group talks — aggregation beats any single expert.
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