Coaching practices for Planning Assumptions
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Planning Assumptions, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- My plan feels solid until I notice it quietly depends on a whole stack of things just going my way
- My whole plan quietly rests on a handful of things I’ve just taken for granted
- I always tell myself it’ll take this long or cost this much, and somehow it always runs over and I’m scrambling
- Every time I plan something I walk through the steps in my head and it feels totally doable in the time I’ve got
- I’m about to commit to this timeline and on paper it all looks fine, but I have a nagging feeling I’m glossing over the ways it could go sideways because admitting them now feels like talking myself out of it before I’ve even started.
Practices that may help
- Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Margin of Safety - Map and stress-test your key assumptions
Before executing, list the assumptions the plan depends on — then ask which ones would kill it if wrong.
Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail - Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number
When uncertain, use a pessimistic estimate as your working assumption — not your best guess.
Margin of Safety - The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
The planning fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to underestimate completion times even when you know your past projects ran late. The fix is not to "try harder" — it is to switch from imagining the ideal future scenario to consulting your own base-rate history and similar projects. - Reference class forecasting
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Run a premortem before committing
Imagine the project has already failed and work backwards to find why.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Use reference class forecasting for project estimates
Estimate how long similar projects have taken historically before estimating your specific project.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Separate the planning session from the execution day
Do your planning in a dedicated session, never on the day you intend to start.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan
Before finalizing a plan or forecast, ask "How did similar things go?" as the first checkpoint.
The Outside View - The premortem (imagine the project already failed)
Before starting, assume the plan has already failed and ask why — then fix it now.
Premeditatio Malorum, in Depth
Related concerns
- Planning Assumptions Audit
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
- How To Avoid Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to underestimate completion times even when you know your past projects ran late. The fix is not to "try harder" — it is to switch from imagining the ideal future scenario to consulting your own base-rate history and similar projects.
- Planning Fallacy How To Avoid
The planning fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to underestimate completion times even when you know your past projects ran late. The fix is not to "try harder" — it is to switch from imagining the ideal future scenario to consulting your own base-rate history and similar projects.
- Project Planning Bias
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
Reference class forecasting
- Adaptive Planning Uncertainty
Anticipate the specific obstacles most likely to block your plan and pre-decide your response to each.
Plan for obstacles with coping plans
- Flyvbjerg Planning
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
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