Coaching practices for Flyvbjerg Planning
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Flyvbjerg Planning, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- Every time I plan something I walk through the steps in my head and it feels totally doable in the time I’ve got
- I’m convinced my project is special and the usual horror stories don’t apply to me
- I’m about to lock in a plan that feels airtight from the inside
- I’m all-in on this plan and can barely make myself imagine it going wrong
- I tend to figure out my plan the same morning I’m supposed to start, in a rush to just get going
Practices that may help
- Reference class forecasting
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Identify the right reference class for your situation
Find a well-defined set of past situations that are structurally similar to yours and collect their outcome data.
Reference Class Forecasting - The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
The planning fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to underestimate completion times even when you know your past projects ran late. The fix is not to "try harder" — it is to switch from imagining the ideal future scenario to consulting your own base-rate history and similar projects. - Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan
Before finalizing a plan or forecast, ask "How did similar things go?" as the first checkpoint.
The Outside View - Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective
Imagine the project has failed — then ask which base-rate failure type caused it.
The Outside View - Separate the planning session from the execution day
Do your planning in a dedicated session, never on the day you intend to start.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Use reference class forecasting for project estimates
Estimate how long similar projects have taken historically before estimating your specific project.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan
Imagine the plan has already failed and ask what went wrong.
Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See - Run a premortem before committing
Imagine the project has already failed and work backwards to find why.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Test your action plan for specificity before relying on it
Before counting on a plan, check that a stranger could execute it from your written description — if not, it is not specific enough.
Action Planning
Related concerns
- Outside View Planning
Before finalizing a plan or forecast, ask "How did similar things go?" as the first checkpoint.
Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan
- Project Planning Bias
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
Reference class forecasting
- Project Risk Outside View
Imagine the project has failed — then ask which base-rate failure type caused it.
Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective
- How To Plan A Project Accurately
Estimate how long similar projects have taken historically before estimating your specific project.
Use reference class forecasting for project estimates
- Planning Assumptions
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
- Realistic Planning
Do your planning in a dedicated session, never on the day you intend to start.
Separate the planning session from the execution day
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.