Evaluate offers on their content, not on the timing of when they arrived

A good offer that comes late in a negotiation is still a good offer — don’t discount it because of sunk cost.

Why it works

Sunk cost bias and reactive devaluation interact in late-stage negotiations: an offer that arrives after extensive effort is discounted because "we’ve put so much in" or because "they only offered this now to pressure us." Offers should be evaluated against your BATNA and reservation price — standards that are independent of how long or how hard the negotiation was.

How to do it

1. When a late offer arrives, reset your evaluation to first principles: does this offer beat my BATNA?
2. Articulate the offer’s value on its merits before considering whether the timing is suspicious.
3. If you suspect the timing is tactical, acknowledge it separately from whether the offer itself is good.

Evidence

Sunk cost effects in negotiation and decision-making are well-documented: people over-invest and over-stay because of prior investments rather than current value. The corrective is explicit reset to forward-looking value criteria. (observational)

Some timing effects are real information: a last-minute offer may signal time pressure on the counterpart, which is relevant information. Evaluate both the timing-as-information and the offer content separately.

Sources

• Bazerman, Beekun & Schoorman (1982), sunk costs in organizational decisions

Common mistake

Refusing a good late-stage offer because "they should have offered this earlier" — the evaluation should be about whether the deal is good, not whether you deserved to get there faster.