Coaching practices for Calibration Log

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Calibration Log, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• I’ve been logging faithfully for a while but I’m starting to doubt the numbers
• I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
• There’s one area I consider myself an expert in, and that’s exactly where I’m most stubbornly sure and most often wrong
• When I say I’m eighty percent sure I genuinely don’t know if that means anything

Practices that may help

1. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
2. Calibration Training
   Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
3. Periodically compare self-ratings with objective data
   People systematically miscalibrate self-monitoring — periodic objective checks correct the drift.
   Self-Monitoring, Made Practical
4. Maintain a scored prediction log
   Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
   Calibration Training
5. Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
   Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
   Calibration Training
6. Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions
   Your "80% confident" beliefs should come true about 80% of the time — check that they do.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
7. Calibration practice
   Predict your performance before each retrieval test, then compare prediction to outcome.
   Self-Regulated Learning: Taking Control of How You Learn
8. Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions
   Use factual trivia questions as a practice ground for calibration — outcomes resolve immediately and the stakes are zero.
   Calibration Training
9. Confidence-accuracy gap tracking
   After each test, compute and record the gap between your predicted and actual scores.
   Feeling of Knowing: Why Your Confidence Misleads You
10. Log actual vs. estimated time for every task
    Build a personal database of your own estimation errors so you can calibrate future predictions.
    The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong

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