Coaching practices for Calibration Quiz

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Calibration Quiz, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

  • My real decisions take months to resolve and matter too much for me to score them honestly, so I never get clean reps
  • I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
  • There’s one area I consider myself an expert in, and that’s exactly where I’m most stubbornly sure and most often wrong
  • I walk into every test sure I’ll do well and walk out shocked by the score
  • I want to actually know whether my gut is any good — when I feel sure about something, am I right that often, or am I just confident?

Practices that may help

  1. Calibration Training
    Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
  2. Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions
    Use factual trivia questions as a practice ground for calibration — outcomes resolve immediately and the stakes are zero.
    Calibration Training
  3. Calibrated Questions, Made Practical
    Calibrated questions are open "How" and "What" questions that hand the other party a problem to solve, letting you steer a negotiation or difficult conversation without commands or ultimatums. The technique comes from Chris Voss’s FBI hostage-negotiation work; its mechanism is grounded in autonomy psychology, though the specific scripts are practitioner craft rather than a lab-validated protocol.
  4. Calibration practice
    Predict your performance before each retrieval test, then compare prediction to outcome.
    Self-Regulated Learning: Taking Control of How You Learn
  5. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
    Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
    The Outside View
  6. Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
    Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
    Calibration Training
  7. Confidence-accuracy gap tracking
    After each test, compute and record the gap between your predicted and actual scores.
    Feeling of Knowing: Why Your Confidence Misleads You
  8. Practice probability calibration
    Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
    Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
  9. Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions
    Your "80% confident" beliefs should come true about 80% of the time — check that they do.
    Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
  10. Maintain a scored prediction log
    Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
    Calibration Training

Related concerns

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