Coaching practices for How to Be Better Calibrated
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For How to Be Better Calibrated, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- There’s one area I consider myself an expert in, and that’s exactly where I’m most stubbornly sure and most often wrong
- My real decisions take months to resolve and matter too much for me to score them honestly, so I never get clean reps
- When I say I’m eighty percent sure I genuinely don’t know if that means anything
- I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
Practices that may help
- Calibration Training
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable. - Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
Calibration Training - Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions
Use factual trivia questions as a practice ground for calibration — outcomes resolve immediately and the stakes are zero.
Calibration Training - Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions
Your "80% confident" beliefs should come true about 80% of the time — check that they do.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Calibrated Questions, Made Practical
Calibrated questions are open "How" and "What" questions that hand the other party a problem to solve, letting you steer a negotiation or difficult conversation without commands or ultimatums. The technique comes from Chris Voss’s FBI hostage-negotiation work; its mechanism is grounded in autonomy psychology, though the specific scripts are practitioner craft rather than a lab-validated protocol. - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Practice probability calibration
Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Calibration practice
Predict your performance before each retrieval test, then compare prediction to outcome.
Self-Regulated Learning: Taking Control of How You Learn - Track your estimates and calibrate
Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
Fermi Estimation
Related concerns
- Calibration Control Classification
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration Practice
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration Quiz
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Planning Calibration
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration By Domain
Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
- Calibration Training At Work
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.