Coaching practices for Estimation Calibration
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Estimation Calibration, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- My guesses never seem to get any better because I make them, find out the real answer, and then just move on
- I’m late on something, I shrug, update the calendar, and immediately forget I ever thought it’d take half as long
- When I’d swear I know roughly where a number lands, the real answer is constantly outside the range I’d have bet on
- There’s one area I consider myself an expert in, and that’s exactly where I’m most stubbornly sure and most often wrong
Practices that may help
- Calibration Training
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable. - Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Track your estimates and calibrate
Compare your Fermi estimates to actual figures when you can, and use the gap to improve future estimates.
Fermi Estimation - Log actual vs. estimated time for every task
Build a personal database of your own estimation errors so you can calibrate future predictions.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Practice confidence interval estimation
Estimate ranges for factual quantities and check how often the true value falls within your range.
Calibration Training - Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
Calibration Training - Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions
Your "80% confident" beliefs should come true about 80% of the time — check that they do.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Calibration practice
Predict your performance before each retrieval test, then compare prediction to outcome.
Self-Regulated Learning: Taking Control of How You Learn
Related concerns
- Forecast Calibration
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Forecasting Calibration
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration By Domain
Calibration is domain-specific — find where your confidence most exceeds your accuracy.
Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident
- Calibration Control Classification
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Calibration Log
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
- Calibration Training When Starting Out
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.