Coaching practices for Judgments of Learning Why You Misjudge What You Ve Learned During a Big Change

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Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

  • A choice I made blew up and I’m tearing into myself
  • I flip the flashcard over, see the answer, and instantly think "yeah, I totally knew that"
  • Right after I read something it feels totally locked in
  • When a study session feels good I walk away assuming I learned everything in it, and when it feels like a slog I assume none of it stuck
  • I beat myself up over a call that went badly even though it was reasonable with what I knew, and I pat myself on the back for a reckless one that happened to work

Practices that may help

  1. Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned
    Judgments of learning (JOLs) are in-the-moment predictions about how well information will be remembered later. Thomas Nelson’s research showed JOLs are often inaccurate — biased upward by current processing fluency — causing learners to declare items "learned" prematurely and under-study material they will later forget. Delayed JOLs and retrieval-based checks produce more accurate predictions and better study-time allocation.
  2. Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome
    Judge a decision by the quality of the reasoning at the time, not by what happened.
    Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
  3. Commitment-forcing before feedback
    Write a definite answer and confidence rating before seeing correct feedback — never the reverse.
    Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned
  4. Delayed judgment of learning
    Wait several minutes after study before rating how well you will remember — early ratings are systematically too high.
    Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned
  5. Global vs. local JOL separation
    Rate individual items separately from your general sense of "how the session went" — they diverge.
    Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned
  6. Score decision quality separately from outcome quality
    Judge the process you used — not whether it worked — when you review a past decision.
    Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time
  7. Study the gap between prediction and result with honesty
    Compare what you expected to what happened, and resist the urge to explain the gap away.
    Plan–Do–Study–Act: Deming’s Loop for Personal Improvement
  8. Prioritize items you were confidently wrong about
    Items you felt sure about but got wrong are retained especially well after correction — target these deliberately.
    Errorful Learning: Why Making Mistakes Strengthens Memory
  9. Regression-to-mean awareness in JOLs
    Discount your highest-confidence JOLs most — they are the most likely to be inflated.
    Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned
  10. Separate the quality of the decision from the outcome
    A good decision can produce a bad outcome, and a bad decision can produce a good outcome — do not confuse them.
    Thinking in Bets

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