Coaching practices for Superforecasting After a Loss
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Superforecasting After a Loss, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
- This one loss feels like the end of the world when I stare right at it, and I keep checking it obsessively, which only makes it worse
- New information keeps arriving that should obviously move my estimate, but I just cling to the date I first committed to
- I’m certain that if this goes the way I fear, I’ll never recover from it
- Once I’ve made up my mind I dig in and won’t budge until I’m absolutely certain I was wrong
Practices that may help
- Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable. - Zoom out from the single loss to the aggregate
A loss looks catastrophic in isolation and trivial across the whole portfolio of your life.
Loss Aversion, Made Practical - Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives
Treat your forecast as a probability that should shift with each new piece of evidence, not a commitment that survives contradiction.
Reference Class Forecasting - Expect to adapt more than you think you will
Your psychological immune system will make most setbacks feel more tolerable than you currently predict.
Affect Forecasting: Why You Mispredicted How You’d Feel - Update beliefs frequently and in small increments
When new evidence arrives, adjust your probability estimate — even if the change is small.
Superforecasting - Run a structured mastery debrief after each performance
Immediately after any significant attempt, extract what worked before the memory fades.
Mastery Experiences - Accept positive-EV decisions even when they feel uncomfortable
If the expected value is clearly positive, take the decision — even if most individual outcomes are losses.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Affect Forecasting: Why You Mispredicted How You’d Feel
Daniel Gilbert and colleagues showed that people reliably misjudge both the intensity and duration of their future emotional reactions — overestimating how bad bad events will feel and how good good events will feel. The mechanism is "impact bias": we focus on the event and ignore the adaptive processes that will moderate it. This research is well-replicated and has direct implications for how you make decisions, build habits, and manage expectations. - Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
Reference Class Forecasting
Related concerns
- Superforecasting After A Setback
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
- Superforecasting As A Caregiver
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting Under Stress
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting When Overwhelmed
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting With My Partner
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Affect Forecasting Habits
Daniel Gilbert and colleagues showed that people reliably misjudge both the intensity and duration of their future emotional reactions — overestimating how bad bad events will feel and how good good events will feel. The mechanism is "impact bias": we focus on the event and ignore the adaptive processes that will moderate it. This research is well-replicated and has direct implications for how you make decisions, build habits, and manage expectations.
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