Coaching practices for Superforecasting with My Partner
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Superforecasting with My Partner, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
- I commit to one confident number
- I’m running endless mental simulations of how this big choice will feel and convincing myself I already know
- New information keeps arriving that should obviously move my estimate, but I just cling to the date I first committed to
- Once I’ve made up my mind I dig in and won’t budge until I’m absolutely certain I was wrong
Practices that may help
- Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable. - Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
Reference Class Forecasting - Ask people who’ve been there instead of imagining it
Other people’s actual experiences predict your future feelings more accurately than your own imagination.
Affect Forecasting: Why You Mispredicted How You’d Feel - Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives
Treat your forecast as a probability that should shift with each new piece of evidence, not a commitment that survives contradiction.
Reference Class Forecasting - Update beliefs frequently and in small increments
When new evidence arrives, adjust your probability estimate — even if the change is small.
Superforecasting - Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
Reference Class Forecasting - Affect Forecasting: Why You Mispredicted How You’d Feel
Daniel Gilbert and colleagues showed that people reliably misjudge both the intensity and duration of their future emotional reactions — overestimating how bad bad events will feel and how good good events will feel. The mechanism is "impact bias": we focus on the event and ignore the adaptive processes that will moderate it. This research is well-replicated and has direct implications for how you make decisions, build habits, and manage expectations. - Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Decompose complex questions into sub-questions
Break a hard forecasting question into smaller, estimable pieces and aggregate them.
Superforecasting
Related concerns
- Superforecasting As A Caregiver
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting For My Teenager
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting Practice
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting As A Parent
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting At Work
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
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