Coaching practices for Superforecasting Philip Tetlock
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Superforecasting Philip Tetlock, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
- Once I’ve made up my mind I dig in and won’t budge until I’m absolutely certain I was wrong
- New information keeps arriving that should obviously move my estimate, but I just cling to the date I first committed to
- Someone hands me a forecast that says 2.3% and that crisp little number makes me trust it way more than I should
- I catch myself shaving down the estimate I’m about to present
Practices that may help
- Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable. - Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and formalized by Bent Flyvbjerg, improves forecast accuracy by anchoring on the statistical distribution of outcomes for similar past projects rather than on the details of the current one. The method reliably corrects the optimism bias that inflates cost, time, and benefit estimates in planning — the evidence base here is real and specific. - Update beliefs frequently and in small increments
When new evidence arrives, adjust your probability estimate — even if the change is small.
Superforecasting - Affect Forecasting: Why You Mispredicted How You’d Feel
Daniel Gilbert and colleagues showed that people reliably misjudge both the intensity and duration of their future emotional reactions — overestimating how bad bad events will feel and how good good events will feel. The mechanism is "impact bias": we focus on the event and ignore the adaptive processes that will moderate it. This research is well-replicated and has direct implications for how you make decisions, build habits, and manage expectations. - Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives
Treat your forecast as a probability that should shift with each new piece of evidence, not a commitment that survives contradiction.
Reference Class Forecasting - Beware false precision in forecasts and models
Treat any precise probability or quantitative forecast with explicit suspicion about whether the model fits the domain.
The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game - Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation
Recognize that some forecast inflation is genuine bias and some is deliberate spin — they require different fixes.
Reference Class Forecasting - Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally - Make bold predictions — then check them
State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
Falsification Thinking
Related concerns
- Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Affect Forecasting Habits
Daniel Gilbert and colleagues showed that people reliably misjudge both the intensity and duration of their future emotional reactions — overestimating how bad bad events will feel and how good good events will feel. The mechanism is "impact bias": we focus on the event and ignore the adaptive processes that will moderate it. This research is well-replicated and has direct implications for how you make decisions, build habits, and manage expectations.
- How To Think Like A Forecaster
Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
- Superforecasting At Work
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
- Superforecasting During A Big Change
When new evidence arrives, adjust your probability estimate — even if the change is small.
Update beliefs frequently and in small increments
- Superforecasting During Conflict
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournament research found that a subset of ordinary people — "superforecasters" — consistently outperform domain experts and intelligence analysts at probabilistic prediction. They share measurable cognitive and behavioral habits: they think in probabilities, update frequently on evidence, and actively seek disconfirming information. These habits are learnable.
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