Making the simpler choice deliberately

When facing a decision with many options, default to the simpler one unless there is a specific reason to choose complexity.

Why it works

The natural tendency in modern life is to mistake complexity for sophistication — more options, more nuance, more conditions feel like better thinking. But decision research shows that complex decisions under uncertainty often underperform simple heuristics because complexity amplifies noise along with signal. Pu-informed simplicity is a prior in favour of the simpler option that shifts the burden of proof to complexity.

How to do it

1. When you’re at a decision point, list the simplest version of each option.
2. Ask: "What would be lost if I chose the simpler path?" — not "what would be gained by the complex one?"
3. If the loss is not concrete and significant, choose simplicity.
4. Review the decision in 30 days: did the complexity you avoided matter?

Evidence

Simple heuristics research (Gigerenzen and colleagues) shows that simple decision rules often match or outperform complex models, particularly under uncertainty and time pressure. The burden-of-proof reversal — requiring justification for complexity — is a practical application of this. (observational)

Simple heuristics work in some decision environments but not all — specifically when there are many relevant cues with known weights, complexity may win. The practice works best as a prior, not a rule.

Sources

• Gigerenzen & Goldstein (1996), reasoning the fast and frugal way, Psychological Review

Common mistake

Confusing simplicity with laziness — choosing the simpler path because it requires less effort, regardless of whether the effort of complexity was warranted. Pu is a conscious return to essentials, not avoidance of difficulty.