Coaching practices for Plan Assumptions Audit
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Plan Assumptions Audit, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- My plan feels solid until I notice it quietly depends on a whole stack of things just going my way
- My whole plan quietly rests on a handful of things I’ve just taken for granted
- I’m about to commit to this timeline and on paper it all looks fine, but I have a nagging feeling I’m glossing over the ways it could go sideways because admitting them now feels like talking myself out of it before I’ve even started.
- I’m all-in on this plan and can barely make myself imagine it going wrong
- On paper my reasoning checks out, but the conclusion still feels shaky and I can’t locate why
Practices that may help
- Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Margin of Safety - Map and stress-test your key assumptions
Before executing, list the assumptions the plan depends on — then ask which ones would kill it if wrong.
Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail - Run a premortem before committing
Imagine the project has already failed and work backwards to find why.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective
Imagine the project has failed — then ask which base-rate failure type caused it.
The Outside View - Surface the hidden premises
Find the unstated assumptions that the argument needs to work.
Argument Mapping - The premortem (imagine the project already failed)
Before starting, assume the plan has already failed and ask why — then fix it now.
Premeditatio Malorum, in Depth - Surface and examine the assumptions you are making
Name the assumptions filling the gap between the data you selected and the interpretation you reached.
The Ladder of Inference - Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan
Imagine the plan has already failed and ask what went wrong.
Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See - The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
The planning fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to underestimate completion times even when you know your past projects ran late. The fix is not to "try harder" — it is to switch from imagining the ideal future scenario to consulting your own base-rate history and similar projects. - Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan
Before finalizing a plan or forecast, ask "How did similar things go?" as the first checkpoint.
The Outside View
Related concerns
- Planning Assumptions Audit
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work
- Find Flaws In Your Plan
Before starting, assume the plan has already failed and ask why — then fix it now.
The premortem (imagine the project already failed)
- Planning Assumptions
Every plan rests on assumptions — list them and ask how likely each one is.
- Unknown Unknowns Planning
Do your planning in a dedicated session, never on the day you intend to start.
Separate the planning session from the execution day
- Find The Flaw In Your Plan
Assume the plan failed, then have everyone write down why.
Run the basic pre-mortem
- Flyvbjerg Planning
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
Reference class forecasting
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