Coaching practices for I Call Myself Good at Reading How Things Will Go in My Field but When I'm Honest I Only Ever Remember the Calls I Got Right I Want to Start Keeping Score for Real and Find Out Whether My Track Record Actually Backs Up the Confidence I Walk Around with
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For I Call Myself Good at Reading How Things Will Go in My Field but When I'm Honest I Only Ever Remember the Calls I Got Right I Want to Start Keeping Score for Real and Find Out Whether My Track Record Actually Backs Up the Confidence I Walk Around with, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I call myself good at reading how things will go in my field, but when I’m honest I only ever remember the calls I got right
- I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
- I want to actually know whether my gut is any good — when I feel sure about something, am I right that often, or am I just confident?
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- I’m sure about things constantly and I have no idea if that confidence is earned
Practices that may help
- Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Practice probability calibration
Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Track your calibration across many predictions
Score your confidence levels against outcomes over dozens of predictions to find your systematic biases.
Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time - Confidence-accuracy gap tracking
After each test, compute and record the gap between your predicted and actual scores.
Feeling of Knowing: Why Your Confidence Misleads You - Log probability estimates before the outcome
Write down your confidence level and reasoning before you know how things turn out.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel
Start your confidence estimate from the historical hit rate for this type of prediction, not from how confident you feel.
Calibration Training
Related concerns
- When Calibration Training Track Predictions With Scores
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Maintain a scored prediction log
- When Hindsight Bias Calibration Training
Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
Practice probability calibration
- When Expected Value Thinking Ev Journal
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
- When Outside View Track And Score Past Predictions
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
- Confidence Accuracy Calibration
Calibration training teaches you to match your stated confidence levels to your actual accuracy: if you say "70% confident," roughly 70% of those claims should turn out to be correct. Tetlock’s forecasting research and probability training studies show calibration is trainable with practice and feedback — the evidence here is specific and replicable.
- Confidence Prediction Tracking
Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.