Coaching practices for I Make These Probability Guesses in My Head This is 70 Likely to Work but I Never Write Them Down or Check Them Later So I Have No Idea Whether My Gut is Actually Any Good or Just Confidently Wrong and I Want to Start Keeping Honest Score of My Predictions Against What Really Happens

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For I Make These Probability Guesses in My Head This is 70 Likely to Work but I Never Write Them Down or Check Them Later So I Have No Idea Whether My Gut is Actually Any Good or Just Confidently Wrong and I Want to Start Keeping Honest Score of My Predictions Against What Really Happens, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I make these probability guesses in my head
• I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
• I’m sure about things constantly and I have no idea if that confidence is earned
• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• I want to actually know whether my gut is any good — when I feel sure about something, am I right that often, or am I just confident?

Practices that may help

1. Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
   Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
   Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty
2. Maintain a scored prediction log
   Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
   Calibration Training
3. Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
   Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
   Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
4. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
5. Practice probability calibration
   Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
   Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
6. Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding
   Write down each meaningful outcome, assign a probability, and compute the weighted total.
   Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty
7. Make bold predictions — then check them
   State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
   Falsification Thinking
8. Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
   Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
   The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly
9. Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
   Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
10. Log probability estimates before the outcome
    Write down your confidence level and reasoning before you know how things turn out.
    Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect

Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.