Coaching practices for I Make Calls About How Things Will Go All the Time but I Never Write Them Down or Check Them After So I Have No Honest Idea Whether My Hunches Are Any Good Only a Vague Feeling That I'm Usually Right

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For I Make Calls About How Things Will Go All the Time but I Never Write Them Down or Check Them After So I Have No Honest Idea Whether My Hunches Are Any Good Only a Vague Feeling That I'm Usually Right, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• I’m about to make a real call and I want to pin down what I actually think will happen right now, before I find out
• I make these probability guesses in my head
• I have all these confident hunches about how things will turn out, but I never commit to a specific call in advance

Practices that may help

1. Maintain a scored prediction log
   Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
   Calibration Training
2. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
3. Log probability estimates before the outcome
   Write down your confidence level and reasoning before you know how things turn out.
   Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
4. Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
   Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
   Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty
5. Make bold predictions — then check them
   State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
   Falsification Thinking
6. Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
   Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
   Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
7. Practice probability calibration
   Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
   Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
8. Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions
   Your "80% confident" beliefs should come true about 80% of the time — check that they do.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
9. Log actual vs. estimated time for every task
   Build a personal database of your own estimation errors so you can calibrate future predictions.
   The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
10. Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
    Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
    The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly

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