Make the first offer (when you’re informed)

When you know the value range, anchor first — the opening number drags the deal toward it.

Why it works

The first number becomes the reference point both sides adjust from, and adjustments are systematically insufficient, so the final figure lands closer to the anchor than to a neutral midpoint. Making the first offer lets you set that reference rather than react to it.

How to do it

1. Only anchor first when you have a credible sense of the real value range.
2. Set the anchor ambitious but justifiable — too extreme invites dismissal.
3. Pair the number with a reason, so it reads as principled rather than arbitrary.

Evidence

Anchoring is among the most robustly replicated effects in judgment research, and negotiation studies find first offers tend to predict final outcomes. (rct)

When you lack good information about value, anchoring first can backfire by revealing a low ceiling; the advantage assumes you’re reasonably informed.

Common mistake

Defaulting to let the other side open out of politeness, handing them the anchor and then under-adjusting away from it.