State your confidence level alongside your position

"I’m about 70% confident on this" signals a reasoned estimate, not a fact claim.

Why it works

Expressing degrees of confidence (rather than binary agreement/disagreement) accurately represents the epistemic state of most real beliefs and signals that you are treating claims as updateable estimates rather than identity commitments. This lowers the stakes of the conversation and creates permission for both parties to hold tentative views.

How to do it

1. Before stating a position, mentally estimate how confident you actually are (0–100%).
2. Express that: "I think this is probably true, but I’m genuinely uncertain about…"
3. Ask for the other person’s confidence level too — "how sure are you about that?"

Evidence

Calibration training — learning to match stated confidence to actual accuracy — is an empirically tested practice; research from the Good Judgment Project found calibration training significantly improved forecasting accuracy. (observational)

Calibration research primarily addresses probabilistic forecasting, not interpersonal disagreement; the extension to conversations is principled but not directly studied in that context.

Sources

• Tetlock & Gardner (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Good Judgment Project)

Common mistake

Treating confidence expression as a negotiating tactic — stating low confidence to seem humble while actually holding the view very strongly — which the other person eventually detects.