Coaching practices for Forecast Accuracy Log

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Forecast Accuracy Log, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• Each project wraps up and I move straight on without ever writing down what I’d guessed versus what actually happened
• I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
• I commit to one confident number
• I make these probability guesses in my head

Practices that may help

1. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
2. Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
   Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
   Reference Class Forecasting
3. Maintain a scored prediction log
   Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
   Calibration Training
4. Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate
   Represent your forecast as a range of likely outcomes, not a single predicted number.
   Reference Class Forecasting
5. Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
   Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
   Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty
6. Log actual vs. estimated time for every task
   Build a personal database of your own estimation errors so you can calibrate future predictions.
   The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
7. Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
   Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
   The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly
8. Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives
   Treat your forecast as a probability that should shift with each new piece of evidence, not a commitment that survives contradiction.
   Reference Class Forecasting
9. Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
   Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
   Superforecasting
10. Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
    Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
    Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds

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