Coaching practices for Prediction Log
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Prediction Log, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I make these probability guesses in my head
- I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- I have all these confident hunches about how things will turn out, but I never commit to a specific call in advance
- I’m about to make a real call and I want to pin down what I actually think will happen right now, before I find out
Practices that may help
- Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Make bold predictions — then check them
State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
Falsification Thinking - Log probability estimates before the outcome
Write down your confidence level and reasoning before you know how things turn out.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
Reference Class Forecasting - Log actual vs. estimated time for every task
Build a personal database of your own estimation errors so you can calibrate future predictions.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong - Monitor affect and context alongside the target behavior
Adding one line about your mood or context to the behavioral log transforms data into a solvable problem.
Self-Monitoring, Made Practical - Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly
Related concerns
- Forecast Accuracy Log
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
- How To Track Predictions
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
- How To Track Your Predictions
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
- When Outside View Track And Score Past Predictions
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Maintain a scored prediction log
- When Calibration Training Track Predictions With Scores
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
- When Expected Value Thinking Ev Journal
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
Describe your situation in your own words to search the complete practice library.