Coaching practices for How to Track Your Predictions
Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For How to Track Your Predictions, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.
Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?
- I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
- I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
- I call myself good at reading how things will go in my field, but when I’m honest I only ever remember the calls I got right
- When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
- I make these probability guesses in my head
Practices that may help
- Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
The Outside View - Maintain a scored prediction log
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Calibration Training - Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly - Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Superforecasting - Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty - Make bold predictions — then check them
State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
Falsification Thinking - Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds - Practice probability calibration
Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect - Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
Reference Class Forecasting - Use reference classes to ground personal estimates in base rates
Before estimating how your situation will unfold, find similar past situations and check what happened.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
Related concerns
- How To Track Predictions
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
- When Expected Value Thinking Ev Journal
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
- Forecast Accuracy Log
Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
- How To Make Accurate Predictions
Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
- Prediction Log
Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
- When Calibration Training Track Predictions With Scores
Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
Maintain a scored prediction log
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