Coaching practices for How to Track Predictions

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For How to Track Predictions, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I make calls about how things will go all the time, but I never write them down or check them after
• When a prediction of mine blows up, I either spiral into thinking the whole thing is pointless or I just shrug and forget it
• I make calls all the time but I never write them down or check them later, so my confidence is just a feeling that floats free
• I call myself good at reading how things will go in my field, but when I’m honest I only ever remember the calls I got right
• I’m sure about things constantly and I have no idea if that confidence is earned

Practices that may help

1. Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use
   Keep a forecast log and score it — you cannot improve calibration without feedback on where you were over- or under-confident.
   The Outside View
2. Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice
   Take prediction errors as performance feedback, not as proof that forecasting is futile.
   Superforecasting
3. Maintain a scored prediction log
   Record predictions with explicit probabilities and score them when they resolve.
   Calibration Training
4. Track the accuracy of your domain predictions
   Keep a record of what you predicted in your area of claimed expertise and score it.
   The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Understood Clearly
5. Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions
   Assign explicit probability estimates to your predictions and track whether they come true at the right rate.
   Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
6. Make bold predictions — then check them
   State a specific, testable prediction about the future and record it before you see the outcome.
   Falsification Thinking
7. Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates
   Log your probability estimates and payoff predictions, then compare them to what happened.
   Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty
8. Practice probability calibration
   Regularly make probabilistic predictions and track your accuracy across many of them.
   Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect
9. Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data
   Record actual vs. forecast outcomes honestly — this builds the reference class that future forecasts depend on.
   Reference Class Forecasting
10. Reward Prediction Error: Using Dopamine Science to Stay Motivated
    Wolfram Schultz’s Nobel-recognized research showed that dopamine neurons fire not at reward delivery but at the moment a cue predicts an unexpected reward — and drop below baseline when an expected reward doesn’t arrive. This "prediction error" signal is the brain’s learning engine. Understanding it reveals why novelty, uncertainty, and progress all outperform predictable rewards at sustaining motivation over time.

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