Coaching practices for How to Evaluate Evidence Quality

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Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• A flimsy study that confirms what I want I’ll wave straight through, but a solid one that contradicts me I’ll pick apart for hours
• I’m leaning hard on the evidence that lines up with what I want to be true and brushing off the rest
• Someone stated something with total confidence and I just nodded and built on it
• I start "researching" a question but I notice I’m really just typing in searches that hand me the answer I already wanted
• I want to know whether the evidence actually changed my mind or just confirmed where I already landed

Practices that may help

1. Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
   Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
   Motivated Reasoning
2. Evaluate evidence by its likelihood ratio, not by how it makes you feel
   Ask how much more likely this evidence would be if you’re right versus if you’re wrong.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
3. Probe for evidence behind claims
   Ask "what evidence supports that?" before accepting any factual or evaluative claim.
   Socratic Questioning
4. Structure the analysis before searching for evidence
   Define what you’re looking for and what would count as evidence before starting your search.
   Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See
5. State your prior probability before seeing the evidence
   Before looking at any data, commit to a numerical estimate of how likely something is.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
6. Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once
   New evidence should shift your probability somewhat — rarely from 5% to 95% in one step.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
7. Identify which features are actually diagnostic
   Separate features that genuinely differentiate categories from ones that just complete the picture.
   The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance
8. Specify what would falsify your belief before you look at evidence
   Write down what evidence would prove you wrong before you go looking.
   Falsification Thinking
9. Rate the strength of each logical link
   Assign a confidence to each "supports" or "rebuts" link, not just to the conclusion.
   Argument Mapping
10. Catch yourself working backward from a conclusion
    Notice when the conclusion appeared before the evidence — and treat that as a red flag.
    Motivated Reasoning

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