Coaching practices for How to Weigh Evidence

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For How to Weigh Evidence, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I’m leaning hard on the evidence that lines up with what I want to be true and brushing off the rest
• A flimsy study that confirms what I want I’ll wave straight through, but a solid one that contradicts me I’ll pick apart for hours
• I want to know whether the evidence actually changed my mind or just confirmed where I already landed
• I want to lay this recurring thought out and actually weigh it like a fair judge
• Once I believe something, I only ever notice the things that prove me right

Practices that may help

1. Evaluate evidence by its likelihood ratio, not by how it makes you feel
   Ask how much more likely this evidence would be if you’re right versus if you’re wrong.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
2. Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
   Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
   Motivated Reasoning
3. State your prior probability before seeing the evidence
   Before looking at any data, commit to a numerical estimate of how likely something is.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
4. Examine the evidence for and against the thought
   Treat the thought as a hypothesis and find the actual evidence on both sides.
   Cognitive Restructuring: The CBT Method for Changing Unhelpful Thoughts
5. Actively seek disconfirming evidence
   Deliberately look for evidence that your current belief is wrong.
   Superforecasting
6. Structure the analysis before searching for evidence
   Define what you’re looking for and what would count as evidence before starting your search.
   Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See
7. Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once
   New evidence should shift your probability somewhat — rarely from 5% to 95% in one step.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
8. Testing a core belief with historical evidence
   Once you have a core belief, survey all your history for evidence that contradicts it.
   The Downward Arrow: Uncovering the Core Beliefs Behind Distress
9. Specify what would falsify your belief before you look at evidence
   Write down what evidence would prove you wrong before you go looking.
   Falsification Thinking
10. Examine the evidence for and against
    Systematically list what supports your interpretation and what doesn’t — like a fair-minded lawyer, not a prosecutor.
    Check the Facts, Made Practical

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