Logical Fallacies Summary: 10 Evidence-Based Coaching Practices

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Practices that may help

  1. The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories
    The narrative fallacy, named by Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan, is the tendency to construct coherent, causal stories from sequences of events — and then to mistake the story for the underlying reality. Narratives feel explanatory because they are causal and emotionally coherent, but they systematically underweight randomness, omit disconfirming details, and create false predictability. The bias is real and well-grounded theoretically; its practical importance is high wherever decisions depend on forecasting or learning from the past.
  2. The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game
    The ludic fallacy, named by Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan, is the mistake of applying the logic of well-defined games (known rules, bounded outcomes, stable probabilities) to domains where those assumptions do not hold — most of real life. The fallacy matters because standard risk models built on game-like distributions systematically underestimate the frequency and magnitude of extreme, unexpected events. This is Taleb’s analytical concept; the supporting evidence is largely observational and historical rather than from controlled experiments.
  3. Explicitly distinguish coherence from probability
    A story can be internally consistent and still be rare — learn to separate "makes sense" from "likely."
    The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely
  4. Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits
    Before applying a model or framework, verify that the category it was built on genuinely matches your situation.
    The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game
  5. Identify what the narrative leaves out
    After hearing or constructing a causal story, deliberately list the facts it doesn’t explain.
    The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories
  6. Generate alternative histories for past outcomes
    For any past success or failure, construct two or three plausible alternative paths that could have led to a different outcome.
    The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories
  7. The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely
    The conjunction fallacy is the well-replicated tendency to judge a specific combination of events as more probable than one of its components alone — made famous by Kahneman and Tversky’s Linda problem. It happens because vivid, representative details hijack probability judgment, and the fix is to reason about base rates rather than narrative fit.
  8. Test each component probability separately
    Before judging a joint claim, estimate each element on its own, then check whether the conjunction is lower.
    The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely
  9. Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it
    List the raw facts, then list the story you’ve layered on top — and check whether the story actually follows.
    The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories
  10. Weigh disconfirming evidence more heavily than confirming evidence
    One strong counterexample outweighs many confirming examples for a universal claim.
    Falsification Thinking

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