Coaching practices for Pre Specifying Disconfirming Evidence

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For Pre Specifying Disconfirming Evidence, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I’m holding a belief tightly and I want to test it honestly, but I know that the second I go looking I’ll find whatever confirms it
• Once I believe something, I only ever notice the things that prove me right
• I start "researching" a question but I notice I’m really just typing in searches that hand me the answer I already wanted
• A flimsy study that confirms what I want I’ll wave straight through, but a solid one that contradicts me I’ll pick apart for hours
• Once I’ve made up my mind, I notice I only ever see the evidence that proves me right and the rest just slides past me

Practices that may help

1. Specify what would falsify your belief before you look at evidence
   Write down what evidence would prove you wrong before you go looking.
   Falsification Thinking
2. Actively seek disconfirming evidence
   Deliberately look for evidence that your current belief is wrong.
   Superforecasting
3. Structure the analysis before searching for evidence
   Define what you’re looking for and what would count as evidence before starting your search.
   Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See
4. Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
   Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
   Motivated Reasoning
5. Consider the opposite
   Actively argue the case against your first conclusion before accepting it.
   Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable
6. Search deliberately for the black swan
   Look for the single example that would overturn your generalization.
   Falsification Thinking
7. Weigh disconfirming evidence more heavily than confirming evidence
   One strong counterexample outweighs many confirming examples for a universal claim.
   Falsification Thinking
8. State your prior probability before seeing the evidence
   Before looking at any data, commit to a numerical estimate of how likely something is.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
9. Actively seek information that disconfirms your view
   Deliberately look for the best evidence against your current position before committing to it.
   Naive Realism: Why Everyone Thinks They See Things as They Are
10. Examine the evidence for and against
    Systematically list what supports your interpretation and what doesn’t — like a fair-minded lawyer, not a prosecutor.
    Check the Facts, Made Practical

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