Coaching practices for I'm Leaning Hard on the Evidence That Lines Up with What I Want to Be True and Brushing Off the Rest but I Haven't Honestly Asked Whether What I'm Pointing to Would Look Exactly the Same If I Were Wrong

Describe almost anything you are working through and IX Coach finds the practices whose real-world fit is closest. For I'm Leaning Hard on the Evidence That Lines Up with What I Want to Be True and Brushing Off the Rest but I Haven't Honestly Asked Whether What I'm Pointing to Would Look Exactly the Same If I Were Wrong, these are the strongest matches in the current practice library.

Does this sound like the set of challenges you might be facing?

• I’m leaning hard on the evidence that lines up with what I want to be true and brushing off the rest
• A flimsy study that confirms what I want I’ll wave straight through, but a solid one that contradicts me I’ll pick apart for hours
• My mind keeps stacking up every reason I’m right that this went badly, and I can’t seem to see anything that points the other way
• Once I’ve made up my mind, I notice I only ever see the evidence that proves me right and the rest just slides past me
• Someone stated something with total confidence and I just nodded and built on it

Practices that may help

1. Evaluate evidence by its likelihood ratio, not by how it makes you feel
   Ask how much more likely this evidence would be if you’re right versus if you’re wrong.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
2. Apply the same evidence standard regardless of whether you like the conclusion
   Grade the evidence before you know which conclusion it supports.
   Motivated Reasoning
3. Examine the evidence for and against
   Systematically list what supports your interpretation and what doesn’t — like a fair-minded lawyer, not a prosecutor.
   Check the Facts, Made Practical
4. Consider the opposite
   Actively argue the case against your first conclusion before accepting it.
   Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable
5. Probe for evidence behind claims
   Ask "what evidence supports that?" before accepting any factual or evaluative claim.
   Socratic Questioning
6. Actively seek disconfirming evidence
   Deliberately look for evidence that your current belief is wrong.
   Superforecasting
7. State your prior probability before seeing the evidence
   Before looking at any data, commit to a numerical estimate of how likely something is.
   Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally
8. Actively seek information that disconfirms your view
   Deliberately look for the best evidence against your current position before committing to it.
   Naive Realism: Why Everyone Thinks They See Things as They Are
9. Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong
   Ask what would change your mind — and then look for it.
   The Scout Mindset
10. Specify what would falsify your belief before you look at evidence
    Write down what evidence would prove you wrong before you go looking.
    Falsification Thinking

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