Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking is a journal article by Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo (1993), published in Management Science. IX Coach's practice library cites it in 7 practices across 6 concepts; each one is listed below, so you can see exactly where this journal article is put to use.
Where to find it
Practices on IX Coach that cite Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts
- Use reference class forecasting for project estimates
Estimate how long similar projects have taken historically before estimating your specific project.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
- Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions
For any high-stakes prediction, force yourself to start with how things typically go, not how your situation feels.
- Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel
Start your confidence estimate from the historical hit rate for this type of prediction, not from how confident you feel.
Calibration Training
- Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan
Before finalizing a plan or forecast, ask "How did similar things go?" as the first checkpoint.
The Outside View
- Reference class forecasting
Before estimating, look up how long similar past projects actually took — not how they felt.
The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong
- Apply the new investor test
Ask: would a rational person who had not already invested choose to invest now?
The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments
- Choose the right reference class for any prediction
Find the statistical base rate for the category your decision belongs to — not just the inspiring examples.
Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See
How this page was checked
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