Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability
Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability is a journal article by Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman (1973), published in Cognitive Psychology. IX Coach's practice library cites it in 5 practices across 5 concepts; each one is listed below, so you can see exactly where this journal article is put to use.
Where to find it
Practices on IX Coach that cite Availability
- Trace where your sense of risk actually came from
When a risk feels pressing, ask whether you’ve encountered data or just stories about it.
Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate
- Keep a mastery evidence log
Record specific instances of successful performance so your brain has concrete data to draw on under future doubt.
Mastery Experiences
- Diagnose before elaborating
Check the common, simple explanation first before searching for rare or complex ones.
Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation
- Actively seek disconfirming cases
When researching base rates, specifically look for cases where things went badly — failure cases are underrepresented in natural memory.
The Outside View
- Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate
When an event feels common or rare, look up how often it actually happens.
The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable
How this page was checked
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