Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases is a journal article by Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman (1974), published in Science. IX Coach's practice library cites it in 6 practices across 5 concepts; each one is listed below, so you can see exactly where this journal article is put to use.
Where to find it
Practices on IX Coach that cite Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
- Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case
Before judging any individual instance, first establish how often this kind of thing happens in general.
Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds
- Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale
Treat new information as evidence that shifts probabilities, not as proof that changes everything.
- Anchor on what you know and scale from there
Start from a number you are confident about, then reason to the unknown.
Fermi Estimation
- Make the first offer (when you’re informed)
When you know the value range, anchor first — the opening number drags the deal toward it.
Anchoring Bias in Negotiation and Judgment
- Diagnose before elaborating
Check the common, simple explanation first before searching for rare or complex ones.
Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation
- Watch for anchoring
Recognize when an arbitrary first number is silently dragging your estimate.
Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable
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