Combine the pre-mortem with red team pressure

Run a pre-mortem and then ask the red team to find the failure mode the team missed.

Why it works

A standard pre-mortem asks team members to imagine failure and work backward. This activates concerns but is constrained by what each person is willing to voice in the group. A red team pre-mortem adds a second layer: after the group pre-mortem, the designated red team pushes specifically on the failure modes the group was reluctant to name or dismissed too quickly. The combination surfaces both the socially acceptable and socially risky concerns.

How to do it

1. Run a standard pre-mortem: "assume the project failed — what happened?"
2. After the group session, give the red team the list and ask: "what did the group not say that you think is actually the most likely failure?"
3. Red team presents their additions without the social pressure of the main group.
4. Integrate both outputs before finalizing the risk register.

Evidence

Pre-mortem research shows it increases identification of failure causes by reducing optimism bias. Adding a red team phase that surfaces what the group suppressed is a practitioner extension of the Mitchell et al. finding, not a separately studied combination. (mechanistic)

The pre-mortem effect is established; the combined pre-mortem + red team protocol is not independently tested. The logic is sound but the added value of the red team pass over a well-run pre-mortem is not established.

Sources

• Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), prospective hindsight and predicting failure, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Common mistake

Using the pre-mortem as a substitute for the red team rather than as a complement. The pre-mortem is self-critical; the red team is externally adversarial — they’re looking for different things.