Preocupaciones de coaching sobre Pensamiento y decisiones

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Use similarity to connect, not to seek validation · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · The Pareto Principle: 80/20 for Personal Productivity + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek information that disconfirms your view · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Recognize that random sequences don’t "owe" balance · The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives + 7 more

State your prior probability before seeing the evidence · State your estimate before encountering vivid case information · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Identify what the narrative leaves out · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Map the feedback loop + 7 more

Name the affect before you reason from it · Default to the charitable interpretation first · Personalization and self-blame + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Systems Thinking for Personal Productivity + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Slow the reflexive loop + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Slow the reflexive loop + 7 more

Convert time decisions to a common currency · Translate price into hours of work or future value · Translate prices into hours of work + 7 more

Anticipate others’ reactions · Map the feedback loop · Keep a second-order decision journal + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Question the question itself + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Looping for Understanding (Difficult Conversations) · Using noting to interrupt rumination + 7 more

Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

The Regret-Minimization Framework · Name the values the regret is about · Weigh action regret against inaction regret + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Thinking in Bets + 7 more

Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Calculate the ongoing cost of delay + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Reframe the inaction as a positive act · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Write a brief final accounting · Run the basic pre-mortem + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes · Identify what the narrative leaves out + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it · Be skeptical of clean lessons extracted from messy outcomes + 7 more

Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Recognize when contrast is being used on you + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Identify what the narrative leaves out · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly + 7 more

Commit and stop re-evaluating · Locate where you’re authored from · Choose authentically — from your own values, not from expectation + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Know and mark the edges of your circle + 7 more

Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting + 7 more

Maintain a scored prediction log · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Stay inside for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Know and mark the edges of your circle · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

Account for delays between action and effect · Account for system delays when evaluating progress · Distinguish functional from dysfunctional procrastination + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

Separate the regret you’ll keep from the fear you’ll forget · Project to age 80 and look back · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Correct for the recency amplification of availability · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Use errors and failures to refine the mental representation, not just the technique · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Substitute · Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Edit your choice environment upstream · Limit the option set deliberately + 7 more

Superforecasting · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Convert time decisions to a common currency · Treat time as your only real wealth · Audit where your time actually goes + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Use delegation as a development tool + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Look for what your map omits · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Use the DCA system to override market fear + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Write the observer’s account of the event + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Check the outside view before trusting the inside view · Choose which burner to turn down intentionally + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Specify the when and where for every goal action + 7 more

Apply the regret minimization frame · Name the values the regret is about · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions + 7 more

Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident + 7 more

Track your information exposure and adjust for its biases · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Run experiments in rapid iteration sprints + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Spot your maximizer tells + 7 more

Appoint an explicit devil’s advocate role · Engage in productive ideological conflict · Develop challenger safety — dissent and challenge are welcomed, not punished + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Correct for the recency amplification of availability + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Reframe “doing nothing” as an active choice with consequences · Flip the default in the direction you want to move + 7 more

Calibration Training · Calibration practice · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident + 7 more

Separate the planning session from the execution day · Chunk and schedule time for key results · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Choice Architecture, Made Practical · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue + 7 more

Calculate cost per unit of outcome for giving and resource allocation · Give every dollar a job · Treat money as fungible across the buckets + 7 more

Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Articulate the cues that triggered your recognition · Prime your identity with environmental cues + 7 more

Diagnose before elaborating · Generate alternative, more accurate explanations · Systematic alternatives: generate three more explanations before deciding + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Distinguish vividness from frequency + 7 more

Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Cut costs mercilessly on things you don’t value · The depletion pause: when the envelope empties, stop and review before borrowing + 7 more

Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes · Introduce controlled novelty into your routines · Use variable-ratio reinforcement to make habits persistent + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Name the question your brain is actually answering · Treat judgment difficulty as a signal to slow down + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Log actual vs. estimated time for every task · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Reframe “doing nothing” as an active choice with consequences · Audit recurring commitments for embedded defaults you never chose + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Notice which system is driving · Dual Coding: Learn With Words and Pictures Together + 7 more

Audit whether your information sources systematically favor survivors · Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Put stakes on your beliefs — even hypothetically + 7 more

Find a truth-seeking group that argues with you · Apply Socratic questioning to your own thinking (not just others’) · Examine the evidence for and against the thought + 7 more

The Outside View · Sportscast what you see rather than directing · Build the child’s inner wealth narrative over time + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Offload peripheral information to free working memory + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty + 7 more

Superforecasting · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Change who gets what information when · Install a fast feedback loop to make consequences visible + 7 more

Distinguish skill from luck in outcomes · Attribute outcomes to effort and strategy · Calibrate effort attributions carefully + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Log actual vs. estimated time for every task + 7 more

Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing · Audit whether your information sources systematically favor survivors · Ask for the failure rate before celebrating the success rate + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Name the question your brain is actually answering · Load a hard problem before sleep + 7 more

Calculate the ongoing cost of delay · Frame inaction as a loss rather than inaction · Frame losses that grow over time as compounding + 7 more

Generate the counterfactual outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · VO2 max intervals · Space reviews at increasing intervals after each successful retrieval + 7 more

Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Shift identity from self-concept to awareness itself · Respond to identity threats without self-concept collapse + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty · Maintain a personal model catalog with examples + 7 more

Hold multiple maps simultaneously · Surface goal conflicts before they undermine each other · Goal Systems Theory: How Goals Work Together (and Against Each Other) + 7 more

Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Sanity-check against known extremes · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Track your estimates and calibrate + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Resolving a decision with two competing values + 7 more

Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Build pattern libraries through deliberate case exposure · Notice the pattern without becoming it + 7 more

Redesign your reward schedule so immediate consequences favor long-term goals · Make consequences immediate to bridge the reward delay problem · Deliver rewards immediately after the target behavior occurs + 7 more

Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Calibrate the Borg scale to your actual physiology · Scaling Questions + 7 more

Ask “and then what?” three times · Move up only when the current step is manageable · Structure multi-step choices to prevent dropping out mid-process + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when generosity becomes denial · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Sanity-check against known extremes · Discount your estimate to create a margin · Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Separate the regret you’ll keep from the fear you’ll forget · Fear-Setting, Made Practical · Stay in the situation until anxiety drops + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Evaluate solutions against costs, benefits, and fit · Batch low-stakes decisions to reduce decision fatigue + 7 more

Define your disqualifiers in advance · Make decisions through debate, not declaration · Check reversibility before you fear the downside + 7 more

Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Score decision quality separately from outcome quality · Run a weekly decision review session + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log · Track the accuracy of your domain predictions + 7 more

Check reversibility before you fear the downside · Name the values the regret is about · Treat your decision as more final than it is + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Pause and label present bias before acting · Recognize present bias as a feature of the mind, not a moral failure + 7 more

Actively watch for escalation of commitment · Exit obligations gracefully and early · Frame major decisions as experiments rather than commitments + 7 more

Invite an adversarial collaborator · Find a truth-seeking group that argues with you · Simulate the adversary’s response to your move + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work · Map and stress-test your key assumptions + 7 more

Reference class forecasting · Identify the right reference class for your situation · The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong + 7 more

Distinguish the word from the thing · Use category labels to change how options feel · Separate the self from the self-story + 7 more

Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Build pattern libraries through deliberate case exposure · Articulate the cues that triggered your recognition + 7 more

Separate the planning session from the execution day · Test your action plan for specificity before relying on it · Mentally simulate the planned behavior in its specific context + 7 more

The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice · Evaluate each option against your criteria before comparing options to each other · Identify the decoy tier in pricing and subscription structures + 7 more

Distinguish skill from luck in outcomes · Conduct a randomness audit of outcomes you’re explaining · Run a structured mastery debrief after each performance + 7 more

The Outside View · Eyes-open intimacy: contact without merger · Practice openness through regular self-disclosure + 7 more

Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them · Distinguish actionable from non-actionable worries · Rate the intensity, not just the type + 7 more

Set stop-loss policies before starting projects · Pre-set your exit criteria · Apply reverse sunk-cost thinking to existing commitments + 7 more

Check units and scales for consistency · Decompose the unknown into knowable sub-problems · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Test each component probability separately · Anchor on base rates before adding details + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · Run the basic pre-mortem + 7 more

Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Build a personal library of failure post-mortems · Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one + 7 more

Audit the cost of inaction explicitly · Calculate the cost of inaction · Frame inaction as a loss rather than inaction + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Update the map as parts shift · Look for what your map omits + 7 more

Discount your estimate to create a margin · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Practice confidence interval estimation + 7 more

Superforecasting · Reference Class Forecasting · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Check units and scales for consistency · Reframe a cost against a larger, legitimate reference point + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Lead with statistics, then interpret with narrative — not the reverse + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis · Opposite Action: Acting Against the Emotion’s Urge · Inversion: Solve Problems Backward + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Committed action: making specific, values-linked behavioral commitments + 7 more

Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Calibrate expectations for how long novelty will sustain motivation · Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives + 7 more

Treat small samples with explicit skepticism · Recognize that random sequences don’t "owe" balance · Expect extreme results to regress toward average + 7 more

Run the basic pre-mortem · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective + 7 more

Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory · Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach + 7 more

Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Elicit your own tacit knowledge by working through cases · Protect expert intuitive response from rule-reversion under pressure + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · Analogical Reasoning · Check for false analogies: does the structural mapping actually hold? + 7 more

Actively watch for escalation of commitment · Turn top risks into tripwires · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Apply extra scrutiny when a choice feels obviously good + 7 more

Ask “and then what?” three times · Map the feedback loop · Design logical consequences that are directly related to the behavior + 7 more

Track recurring domains where you consistently avoid the unfamiliar · Use avoidance orientation as a diagnostic signal · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Understand why systems oscillate — and stop overcorrecting · Oscillate deliberately between full engagement and full recovery · Treat recovery as a performance investment, not a reward for finishing + 7 more

Superforecasting · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Use structured team forecasting to aggregate diverse views + 7 more

Invite an adversarial collaborator · Find a truth-seeking group that argues with you · Ask what alternative perspectives would say + 7 more

Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work · Scope Insensitivity: Why Scale Doesn’t Change Your Feelings · For many decisions, going with your gut outperforms lengthy analysis + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Slow down on one-way doors + 7 more

Find the high-leverage intervention point · Surface and test the mental models driving behavior · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Catch and release the "if only" thought · Project to age 80 and look back + 7 more

Superforecasting · Use structured team forecasting to aggregate diverse views · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Map the feedback loop · Work in the "slight edge summer" and avoid "slight edge winter" · Let compounding do the work (patience) + 7 more

Separate the planning session from the execution day · Run a premortem before committing · Assign project phases to genius-matched people + 7 more

Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Shift from negative to positive orientation toward uncertainty + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity + 7 more

Think in probabilities, not certainties · Put stakes on your beliefs — even hypothetically · State your confidence level alongside your position + 7 more

Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail · Combine the pre-mortem with red team pressure · Require the plan to change, not just the risk register + 7 more

Run a single weekly priority-setting meeting · Maintain at most three active priorities at one time · Weekly matrix review + 7 more

Run a weekly decision review session · Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Log the decision before the outcome + 7 more

Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Consult your future self · Vividly visualize your future self in concrete detail + 7 more

Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Manage the gap between perceived and actual similarity · Contrast training + 7 more

Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check · The Regret-Minimization Framework · Neutralize burner guilt by naming the trade-off explicitly + 7 more

Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Maintain a belief-tracking log with timestamps + 7 more

Constantly distinguish the map from the territory · The COM-B Model and Behavior Change Wheel · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Make your beliefs precise enough to be wrong · One-minute goals: write them short enough to re-read in a minute + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones + 7 more

Leverage Points · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Set a non-negotiable floor for each burner + 7 more

Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions + 7 more

Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Compare the feared risk to risks you already accept + 7 more

Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail · Require the plan to change, not just the risk register · Combine the pre-mortem with red team pressure + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Calibrate dread against statistical frequency · Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ + 7 more

Constantly distinguish the map from the territory · Use errors and failures to refine the mental representation, not just the technique · Maintain a personal model catalog with examples + 7 more

Run a mental simulation before committing to a course of action · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Turn top risks into tripwires + 7 more

The Eisenhower Matrix for Teams · The Eisenhower Matrix and Delegation · The Eisenhower Matrix, Made Practical + 7 more

The Eisenhower Matrix for Teams · The Eisenhower Matrix, Made Practical · The Eisenhower Matrix and Delegation + 7 more

Watch for one-way door creep · The Two-Way Door · Catch co-dysregulation before it spirals + 7 more

Pair the pre-mortem with a clear success vision · Rate each failure by likelihood and impact · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes + 7 more

Identify and amplify the emotional peak of an experience · Document experiences as you complete them · Savoring positive experiences + 7 more

Assess risk and benefit on separate scales before comparing · Use anti-goals as a decision filter before evaluating opportunities · Define your disqualifiers in advance + 7 more

The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong · Log actual vs. estimated time for every task · Reference class forecasting + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Calibration Training · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Override recognition and deliberate when the situation is genuinely novel · Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice: set a good-enough threshold and stop searching when you hit it · Set a “good enough” bar before you search + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Deliberately increase the surface area for serendipity + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Audit which constraints are real and which are assumed + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Errorful Learning: Why Making Mistakes Strengthens Memory · Receive corrective feedback promptly after a test attempt + 7 more

Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments · Reference Class Forecasting + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Run the basic pre-mortem · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the vaccination model: compare population outcomes, not individual paths + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Check whether your judgment is tracking affect, not the target attribute · Name the affect before you reason from it + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log · Calibration Training + 7 more

Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Question your own objectivity explicitly + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Master your stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Rate each failure by likelihood and impact · Circle your top 5 without negotiating · Maintain at most three active priorities at one time + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight + 7 more

Hold models loosely · Fierce protection: say "no" from care, not fear · Using anatta to reduce defensive reactivity + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Limit the option set deliberately · Edit your choice environment upstream + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Question the question itself + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Deliberately underschedule your day to prevent expansion cascade · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Identify and amplify the emotional peak of an experience + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Default to the charitable interpretation first · The accusation audit + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Rank intervention options by structural depth before choosing · Find the high-leverage intervention point · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Surface the source of urgency before accepting it · Separate urgent from important with a dedicated triage window · Eliminate or delegate Quadrant 3 activities + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before you start · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Generous Interpretation · Know when generosity becomes denial + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice instead of maximize · Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Track your estimates and calibrate + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Change who gets what information when + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates · Maintain a scored prediction log · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Precommitment Devices (Ulysses Contracts) · Use commitment devices to make future behavior harder to avoid + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Track your calibration across many predictions · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates + 7 more

Decompose the unknown into knowable sub-problems · Test each component probability separately · Decompose tasks and sum the pieces + 7 more

Solve by subtraction · Change exactly one element and observe what shifts · Ruthlessly edit projects in progress + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Calibration practice · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Write a brief final accounting · Memento Mori: Using Mortality Awareness to Focus What Matters + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work · Map and stress-test your key assumptions · The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Name the question your brain is actually answering · Decompose the target attribute into components before judging + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Appear confident even when you don’t feel it · Signal credibility without claiming it + 7 more

Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Compare the feared risk to risks you already accept · Convert emotional reactions to statistical questions + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Identify what the narrative leaves out · Be skeptical of clean lessons extracted from messy outcomes · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it + 7 more

The Two-Way Door · The Regret-Minimization Framework · Move fast on two-way doors + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Add explicit framing when communicating with low-context people · Clarify the concepts you are using + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes · The Ben Franklin Effect, Made Practical · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Estimate in ranges, not point estimates · Say "I don’t know" when you genuinely don’t · Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) + 7 more

The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice · Check whether a third option is changing your view of the original two · Use the decoy structure to guide others toward better options + 7 more

The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong · Reference class forecasting · Audit plans for scenario inflation + 7 more

Map the feedback loop · Follow through on stated consequences — or don’t state them · Design logical consequences that are directly related to the behavior + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Actively notice positive partner behavior · The enough inventory + 7 more

Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments + 7 more

Calibration Training · Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more