Preocupações de coaching sobre Pensamento e decisões

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Audit which constraints are real and which are assumed + 7 more

Name the affect before you reason from it · Default to the charitable interpretation first · Personalization and self-blame + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Keep a spending regret log to calibrate future decisions · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Systems Thinking for Personal Productivity + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation · Memento Mori: Using Mortality Awareness to Focus What Matters + 7 more

Resist conspiracy escalation · The Stockdale Paradox, Made Practical · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds + 7 more

Decompose tasks and sum the pieces · Estimating work in pomodoros · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Share your own inner world to build the map reciprocally · Learn with someone more capable than you + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Specify the when and where for every goal action + 7 more

Decompose the target attribute into components before judging · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Name the question your brain is actually answering + 7 more

Price the cost of keeping options open · Prefer positions with optionality over positions with precision · Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss + 7 more

Surface and test the mental models driving behavior · Systems Thinking · Systems Thinking for Personal Productivity + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Understand why systems oscillate — and stop overcorrecting · Oscillate deliberately between full engagement and full recovery · Regulate the oscillation consciously + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Distinguish vividness from frequency + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Ask what the person already knows before offering your assessment + 7 more

Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Build a personal library of failure post-mortems · Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing + 7 more

Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test · Treat your decision as more final than it is · Project to age 80 and look back + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the vaccination model: compare population outcomes, not individual paths + 7 more

Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Question your own objectivity explicitly + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain + 7 more

Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Name the prototype you’re comparing against before deciding · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Recognize when contrast is being used on you + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Making the simpler choice deliberately + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Lead with statistics, then interpret with narrative — not the reverse + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Write a letter from your future self to your present self · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes · Train optimistic causal attribution deliberately · Reattribute good events to yourself + 7 more

The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice · Check whether a third option is changing your view of the original two · Use the decoy structure to guide others toward better options + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Apply the regret minimization frame · Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Test each component probability separately · Red-team joint scenarios before betting on them · The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting + 7 more

Identify and challenge the paradigm the system rests on · Leverage Points · Find the high-leverage intervention point + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · Scale the catastrophe on an actual severity scale + 7 more

Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Identify the balancing loops that resist your change efforts + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Check the outside view before trusting the inside view + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Maintain a scored prediction log · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Pre-Suasion, Made Practical · Precommitment Devices (Ulysses Contracts) + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Map the feedback loop + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Stay inside for high-stakes, irreversible decisions + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

Decide whether you’re optimizing for experience or for memory · Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Define yourself by actions, not intentions + 7 more

Audit whether your information sources systematically favor survivors · Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing + 7 more

Spot your maximizer tells · Satisfice instead of maximize · Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Take deliberate, persistent action · Correct computing by adding the emotional layer + 7 more

Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once · Maintain a belief-tracking log with timestamps · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Trim model complexity · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Making the simpler choice deliberately + 7 more

Automate future-self allocations at a moment of patience · Change the default to change the outcome · Set the default deliberately + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Shift from negative to positive orientation toward uncertainty · Run small bets to convert ambiguity into data + 7 more

Apply the regret minimization frame · Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets + 7 more

Distinguish observable data from interpretation · Check the story before you conclude · Observations without evaluation + 7 more

Require the plan to change, not just the risk register · Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail · Red-team your plan with a formal adversarial review + 7 more

Identify the decoy tier in pricing and subscription structures · The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice · Evaluate each option against your criteria before comparing options to each other + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Calibration practice · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Practice confidence interval estimation · Pair confidence work with honest, accurate appraisal of your actual standing + 7 more

Solve by subtraction · Examine the evidence for and against the thought · Examine the evidence for and against the hot thought + 7 more

Pause and label present bias before acting · Recognize present bias as a feature of the mind, not a moral failure · Remove temptations from the environment rather than resisting them + 7 more

Check the consequence across time horizons · Cultivate an "acorn brain": plant what you will not harvest · Apply all three horizons explicitly + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Reframe “doing nothing” as an active choice with consequences · Audit recurring commitments for embedded defaults you never chose + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Notice which system is driving · Dual Coding: Learn With Words and Pictures Together + 7 more

Identify what the narrative leaves out · Count the assumptions each explanation requires · Write the explanation, do not just think it + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Buffer and overflow blocks · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week + 7 more

Build an anti-goal checklist · Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs + 7 more

Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Examine the evidence for and against + 7 more

Design decisions to be reversible where possible · Start with a minimal, easy-to-agree request · The time-boxed trial + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Set default rules for willpower-intense situations + 7 more

Explicitly distinguish coherence from probability · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Test each component probability separately + 7 more

Watch for one-way door creep · Check reversibility before you fear the downside · Treat your decision as more final than it is + 7 more

Prefer positions with optionality over positions with precision · Satisfice: set a good-enough threshold and stop searching when you hit it · Choose maximize or satisfice per decision + 7 more

Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Apply several models to the same problem at once · Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach + 7 more

Simulate the adversary’s response to your move · Invite an adversarial collaborator · Run a mental simulation before committing to a course of action + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Check units and scales for consistency · Decompose the unknown into knowable sub-problems + 7 more

Build plans with slack for outcomes outside your model · The Stoic Reserve Clause · Protect your Q1 response capacity + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong + 7 more

Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · Stick to Values: act consistently with what actually matters to you · Disagree with your manager constructively + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Test each component probability separately · Anchor on base rates before adding details + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Explicitly distinguish coherence from probability · Conduct a randomness audit of outcomes you’re explaining + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Shrink the felt distance to the future reward + 7 more

Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Know and mark the edges of your circle + 7 more

Track your information exposure and adjust for its biases · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Interrupt runaway negative feedback loops before they become self-reinforcing + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Use delegation as a development tool + 7 more

Pause and label present bias before acting · Notice the urge as it arises · Identify your cue + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · Estimate in ranges, not point estimates · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Log probability estimates before the outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Avoiding (unassertive, uncooperative) · Systematically process the backlog + 7 more

Calibrate dread against statistical frequency · Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Pre-commit to a hard option limit + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when generosity becomes denial · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Put stakes on your beliefs — even hypothetically + 7 more

Think and communicate in explicit probabilities · Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

Know and mark the edges of your circle · Intentional field-crossing · The Expertise Reversal Effect: When Help Becomes Harmful + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Run small bets to convert ambiguity into data + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Edit your choice environment upstream · Counteract propinquity bias in friend selection + 7 more

Distinguish vividness from frequency · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Sharpen your senses to deepen the experience + 7 more

Classify every decision as one-way or two-way before starting · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Act as a rational social animal — remember your dual nature + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome + 7 more

Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you · Search deliberately for the black swan · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See + 7 more

Stocks and Flows · Use flow rates as leading indicators; stocks as lagging outcomes · Respect stock momentum: do not expect fast reversals + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success + 7 more

Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing · Commit and stop re-evaluating · Settling on purpose + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Maintain a scored prediction log · Calibration Training + 7 more

Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Set a “good enough” bar before you search + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Edit your choice environment upstream · Reduce daily decisions to protect self-control + 7 more

Assess risk and benefit on separate scales before comparing · Compare the feared risk to risks you already accept · Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Default to assuming you’ve been misunderstood + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Commit and stop re-evaluating · Classify every decision as one-way or two-way before starting + 7 more

Admit uncertainty out loud, especially in your own domain · Say "I don’t know" when you genuinely don’t · Own mistakes promptly and without over-explanation + 7 more

Scope Insensitivity: Why Scale Doesn’t Change Your Feelings · Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them + 7 more

Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity + 7 more

Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Map the feedback loop + 7 more

Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Make bold predictions — then check them · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Ask “and then what?” three times · Run a mental simulation before committing to a course of action · Lead from the strategic thinking domain — absorb and analyze information + 7 more

Track your calibration across many predictions · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Watch for the signatures of overconfidence + 7 more

Distinguish the word from the thing · Semantic satiation to drain a thought of its power · Strip events to their bare nature + 7 more

The Outside View · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions · Check the outside view before trusting the inside view + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · Apply all three horizons explicitly + 7 more

Recognize decoys in political and narrative framing · Use Plan B: the three-step collaborative conversation · Notice and counteract mortality-driven outgroup hostility + 7 more

Write the answers rather than running them in your head · Use the journal to externalize decisions you are stuck on · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Ask “and then what?” three times · Run brief after-action reviews without blame + 7 more

Use structured team forecasting to aggregate diverse views · Use round-robin turns to equalize contribution · Use the talking piece to enforce equal voice + 7 more

Pause before attributing intent · Turn cold calls into warm calls · Downward arrow for interpreting others’ behavior + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Calibration Training · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek information that disconfirms your view · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Override recognition and deliberate when the situation is genuinely novel · Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice: set a good-enough threshold and stop searching when you hit it · Set a “good enough” bar before you search + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Deliberately increase the surface area for serendipity + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · The Pareto Principle: 80/20 for Personal Productivity + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Use similarity to connect, not to seek validation · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Errorful Learning: Why Making Mistakes Strengthens Memory · Receive corrective feedback promptly after a test attempt + 7 more

Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments · Reference Class Forecasting + 7 more

Generate the counterfactual outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision + 7 more

Run the basic pre-mortem · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Check whether your judgment is tracking affect, not the target attribute · Name the affect before you reason from it + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log · Calibration Training + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Master your stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · Run the basic pre-mortem + 7 more

Rate each failure by likelihood and impact · Circle your top 5 without negotiating · Maintain at most three active priorities at one time + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

Hold models loosely · Fierce protection: say "no" from care, not fear · Using anatta to reduce defensive reactivity + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Limit the option set deliberately · Edit your choice environment upstream + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Question the question itself + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Deliberately underschedule your day to prevent expansion cascade · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Thinking in Bets + 7 more

Apply the regret minimization frame · Name the values the regret is about · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Identify and amplify the emotional peak of an experience + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Default to the charitable interpretation first · The accusation audit + 7 more

State your prior probability before seeing the evidence · State your estimate before encountering vivid case information · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Rank intervention options by structural depth before choosing · Find the high-leverage intervention point · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Surface the source of urgency before accepting it · Separate urgent from important with a dedicated triage window · Eliminate or delegate Quadrant 3 activities + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before you start · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Generous Interpretation · Know when generosity becomes denial + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice instead of maximize · Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Track your estimates and calibrate + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · VO2 max intervals · Space reviews at increasing intervals after each successful retrieval + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Change who gets what information when + 7 more

Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Shift identity from self-concept to awareness itself · Respond to identity threats without self-concept collapse + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds + 7 more

Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates · Maintain a scored prediction log · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Precommitment Devices (Ulysses Contracts) · Use commitment devices to make future behavior harder to avoid + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Track your calibration across many predictions · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates + 7 more

Decompose the unknown into knowable sub-problems · Test each component probability separately · Decompose tasks and sum the pieces + 7 more

Solve by subtraction · Change exactly one element and observe what shifts · Ruthlessly edit projects in progress + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Write a brief final accounting · Memento Mori: Using Mortality Awareness to Focus What Matters + 7 more

Recognize that random sequences don’t "owe" balance · The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work · Map and stress-test your key assumptions · The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Name the question your brain is actually answering · Decompose the target attribute into components before judging + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Identify what the narrative leaves out · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Appear confident even when you don’t feel it · Signal credibility without claiming it + 7 more

Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Compare the feared risk to risks you already accept · Convert emotional reactions to statistical questions + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Identify what the narrative leaves out · Be skeptical of clean lessons extracted from messy outcomes · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it + 7 more

The Two-Way Door · The Regret-Minimization Framework · Move fast on two-way doors + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Add explicit framing when communicating with low-context people · Clarify the concepts you are using + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes · The Ben Franklin Effect, Made Practical · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Calculate the ongoing cost of delay + 7 more

Estimate in ranges, not point estimates · Say "I don’t know" when you genuinely don’t · Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong · Reference class forecasting · Audit plans for scenario inflation + 7 more

Map the feedback loop · Follow through on stated consequences — or don’t state them · Design logical consequences that are directly related to the behavior + 7 more

Separate the regret you’ll keep from the fear you’ll forget · Project to age 80 and look back · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Actively notice positive partner behavior · The enough inventory + 7 more

Calibration Training · Practice calibration by tracking your confidence predictions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Recognition-Primed Decision Making + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes · The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Looping for Understanding (Difficult Conversations) · Using noting to interrupt rumination + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Surface and examine the assumptions you are making + 7 more

Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Run a weekly decision review session · Score decision quality separately from outcome quality + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Map the feedback loop + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Be skeptical of clean lessons extracted from messy outcomes · Storytelling for Persuasion, Made Practical · Narrative Identity, Made Practical + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Cooling-off and waiting rules · Use precommitment devices to bind your present self to your future self’s preferences + 7 more

Pre-commit to resolution criteria before making a prediction · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Form a testable prediction before you act + 7 more

Pause and label present bias before acting · Recognize present bias as a feature of the mind, not a moral failure · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See + 7 more

Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan + 7 more

Run a mental simulation before committing to a course of action · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Check units and scales for consistency · Sanity-check against known extremes · Modify and Magnify + 7 more

Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it · Master your stories · Identify what the narrative leaves out + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Slow the reflexive loop + 7 more

Convert time decisions to a common currency · Translate price into hours of work or future value · Translate prices into hours of work + 7 more

Commit and stop re-evaluating · Ask: “Would I choose this today if I were starting fresh?” · Treat your decision as more final than it is + 7 more

Pair the pre-mortem with a clear success vision · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Trust the recognition heuristic in uncertain environments · Articulate the cues that triggered your recognition + 7 more

Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one · Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing + 7 more

Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Actively seek disconfirming cases + 7 more

Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty · Maintain a personal model catalog with examples + 7 more

Run a premortem before committing · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Recognition-speed drills + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Stay inside for high-stakes, irreversible decisions + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Find the high-leverage intervention point + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Limit the option set deliberately · Pre-commit to a hard option limit + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting + 7 more

Check whether a memory is accurate before using it as evidence · Free recall immediately after a study session · Maintain a belief-tracking log with timestamps + 7 more

Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test · Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs + 7 more

Sanity-check against known extremes · Use precise, non-round numbers in final offers · Check units and scales for consistency + 7 more

Anticipate others’ reactions · Map the feedback loop · Keep a second-order decision journal + 7 more

Systems Thinking · Systems Thinking for Personal Productivity · Surface and test the mental models driving behavior + 7 more

Build an anti-goal checklist · Turn top risks into tripwires · Separate competence from performance + 7 more

Scope Insensitivity: Why Scale Doesn’t Change Your Feelings · Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Ask “and then what?” three times · Anticipate others’ reactions + 7 more

Admit uncertainty out loud, especially in your own domain · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Anticipate others’ reactions · Ask “and then what?” three times + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes · Identify what the narrative leaves out + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Slow the reflexive loop + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more