Préoccupations de coaching autour de Pensée et décisions

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Shift identity from self-concept to awareness itself · Respond to identity threats without self-concept collapse + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Default to the charitable interpretation first · The accusation audit + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Automate future-self allocations at a moment of patience + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Shrink the felt distance to the future reward + 7 more

Log actual vs. estimated time for every task · Reference class forecasting · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · The Framing Effect · Question the question itself + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Name your present bias before you buy · Pause and label present bias before acting + 7 more

Run a single weekly priority-setting meeting · Establish an explicit delegation protocol for Q3 tasks · Define "important" explicitly as a team + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Test each component probability separately · Consult an outside observer to counteract narrative pull + 7 more

Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one · Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing + 7 more

Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Build branches that are MECE at every level · Make your constraints explicit before solving + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Edit your choice environment upstream · Limit the option set deliberately + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Apply the regret minimization frame · Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test + 7 more

Discount your estimate to create a margin · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Practice confidence interval estimation + 7 more

Circle of Competence · The concentric-circle extension of ren · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Convert time decisions to a common currency · Treat time as your only real wealth · Audit where your time actually goes + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Track your information exposure and adjust for its biases + 7 more

Check reversibility before you fear the downside · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment + 7 more

Track recurring domains where you consistently avoid the unfamiliar · Use avoidance orientation as a diagnostic signal · Understand the cycle you’re both in -- not just what your partner does + 7 more

Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision + 7 more

Apply extra scrutiny when a choice feels obviously good · Track your information exposure and adjust for its biases · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Looping for Understanding (Difficult Conversations) · Using noting to interrupt rumination + 7 more

Commit and stop re-evaluating · Locate where you’re authored from · Choose authentically — from your own values, not from expectation + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach · Always ask what happens next after the obvious effect + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Pause and label present bias before acting · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Shift from negative to positive orientation toward uncertainty · Uncertainty Tolerance Training + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Audit which constraints are real and which are assumed + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Thinking in Bets + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · Test your why against real decisions · Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate + 7 more

Test each component probability separately · Red-team joint scenarios before betting on them · The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely + 7 more

Margin of Safety · Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Discount your estimate to create a margin + 7 more

Red-team your plan with a formal adversarial review · Invite an adversarial collaborator · Seneca’s evening court — judge the day as an honest prosecutor + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week · Buffer and overflow blocks + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Generate the counterfactual outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Build a personal library of failure post-mortems · Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one + 7 more

Maintain a scored prediction log · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Leverage Points · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · Apply Socratic questioning to your own thinking (not just others’) · Surface and test underlying assumptions + 7 more

Attribute Substitution: When Your Brain Answers a Different Question · Name the question your brain is actually answering · Treat judgment difficulty as a signal to slow down + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Move fast on two-way doors · Notice which system is driving + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Set the default deliberately · Slow down on one-way doors + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Notice when you are in soldier mode · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Decompose tasks and sum the pieces · Decompose tasks to a single next physical action · The 25/5 cycle + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Test each component probability separately · Anchor on base rates before adding details + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets + 7 more

Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · Recognize when contrast is being used on you · Define your disqualifiers in advance + 7 more

Log probability estimates before the outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Use the 10-year view to check values alignment · The values–behavior gap check · Resolving a decision with two competing values + 7 more

Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions · End every check-in with a connecting moment · Adjourning: close the team with intention + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Commit and stop re-evaluating · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes + 7 more

Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one · Audit whether your information sources systematically favor survivors · Anchor on base rates before adding details + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Limit the option set deliberately · Edit your choice environment upstream + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes · Identify what the narrative leaves out + 7 more

Decompose tasks and sum the pieces · Estimating work in pomodoros · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates + 7 more

Update the map from real feedback · Update your view out loud when the evidence warrants it · Ensure the first commitment feels freely chosen + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Ask “and then what?” three times · Always ask what happens next after the obvious effect + 7 more

Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Calibrate the Borg scale to your actual physiology · Scaling Questions + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Consult an outside observer to counteract narrative pull + 7 more

Separate the planning session from the execution day · Make the evening list a non-negotiable daily ritual · Write tomorrow’s six most important tasks the evening before + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case + 7 more

Calibrate dread against statistical frequency · Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Elicit your own tacit knowledge by working through cases · Protect expert intuitive response from rule-reversion under pressure + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome · Receive corrective feedback promptly after a test attempt + 7 more

Estimate switching costs concretely before deciding they’re prohibitive · Track your actual switch-cost pattern for one week · Capture context before every forced switch + 7 more

Separate the regret you’ll keep from the fear you’ll forget · Project to age 80 and look back · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Price the cost of keeping options open · Prefer positions with optionality over positions with precision · Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Use implementation intentions to automate the start despite low mood · Make the long-term consequences of procrastinating feel immediate + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Practice probability calibration + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · Estimate in ranges, not point estimates · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Run a single weekly priority-setting meeting · Define "important" explicitly as a team · Establish an explicit delegation protocol for Q3 tasks + 7 more

The Two-Way Door · Design decisions to be reversible where possible · Watch for one-way door creep + 7 more

Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Run a weekly decision review session · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes + 7 more

Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Write a letter to your future descendants · Build a vivid, concrete future orientation + 7 more

Understand why systems oscillate — and stop overcorrecting · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Identify and amplify the emotional peak of an experience + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting + 7 more

Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Know and mark the edges of your circle + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Move fast on two-way doors + 7 more

Identify what the narrative leaves out · Count the assumptions each explanation requires · Write the explanation, do not just think it + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Look for what your map omits · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

Check units and scales for consistency · Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Know and mark the edges of your circle · Intentional field-crossing · The Expertise Reversal Effect: When Help Becomes Harmful + 7 more

Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Run a weekly decision review session · Track your calibration across many predictions + 7 more

Define "important" explicitly as a team · Run a single weekly priority-setting meeting · Set one organization-wide priority per quarter + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Competing (assertive, uncooperative) · Use Competing when speed or safety matters more than buy-in + 7 more

Always name the specific thing you are giving up · The graceful no · Say no without over-explaining + 7 more

Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory · Use errors and failures to refine the mental representation, not just the technique + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Question the question itself + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Change who gets what information when + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Use the journal to externalize decisions you are stuck on · Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · Apply all three horizons explicitly + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Set charitable interpretation as your cognitive default · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Generous Interpretation · Know when generosity becomes denial + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Share your own inner world to build the map reciprocally · Learn with someone more capable than you + 7 more

Build the inflow before trying to stop the outflow · Use flow rates as leading indicators; stocks as lagging outcomes · Stocks and Flows + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys · Evaluate each option against your criteria before comparing options to each other · The Decoy Effect — How an Irrelevant Option Changes Your Choice + 7 more

Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Articulate the cues that triggered your recognition · Build pattern libraries through deliberate case exposure + 7 more

Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Rapid classification trials · Practice retrieving the chunk label, then its contents + 7 more

Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys · Limit the option set deliberately + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success + 7 more

Sanity-check against known extremes · Discount your estimate to create a margin · Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Check reversibility before you fear the downside · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Making the simpler choice deliberately · Simplify the idea without breaking it + 7 more

Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Amplify images with sensory detail and emotion · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Apply extra scrutiny when a choice feels obviously good + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Notice which system is driving + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Edit your choice environment upstream · Counteract propinquity bias in friend selection + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Edit your choice environment upstream · Use the decoy structure to guide others toward better options + 7 more

Limit the option set deliberately · Pre-commit to a hard option limit · Choice Overload, Made Practical + 7 more

Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Regression-to-mean awareness in JOLs · Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions + 7 more

Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · Run a premortem before committing · Pair the pre-mortem with a clear success vision + 7 more

Margin of Safety · Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Protect the downside before chasing the upside + 7 more

Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss · Prefer positions with optionality over positions with precision · Check reversibility before you fear the downside + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Check whether your judgment is tracking affect, not the target attribute · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Put stakes on your beliefs — even hypothetically + 7 more

Identify the decoy tier in pricing and subscription structures · Recognize when contrast is being used on you · Use precise, non-round numbers in final offers + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Shift from negative to positive orientation toward uncertainty · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty + 7 more

Edit your choice environment upstream · Pre-commit to a hard option limit · Evaluate solutions against costs, benefits, and fit + 7 more

Deliberately consider the opposite hypothesis · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Require the plan to change, not just the risk register · Red Teaming: Stress-Testing Plans Before They Fail · Red-team your plan with a formal adversarial review + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · Use family meetings to solve problems together + 7 more

Watch for one-way door creep · Design decisions to be reversible where possible · Find the advantage inside the obstacle + 7 more

Require the plan to change, not just the risk register · Map and stress-test your key assumptions · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Check whether a memory is accurate before using it as evidence · Free recall immediately after a study session · Maintain a belief-tracking log with timestamps + 7 more

Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test · Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Distinguish vividness from frequency + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Build plans with slack for outcomes outside your model + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Separate "many people worry about X" from "X is actually likely" + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Track recurring domains where you consistently avoid the unfamiliar · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Reduce task ambiguity before starting + 7 more

Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys · Limit the option set deliberately · Reduce the number of options to increase follow-through + 7 more

The Eisenhower Matrix for Teams · The Eisenhower Matrix, Made Practical · The Eisenhower Matrix and Delegation + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Use errors and failures to refine the mental representation, not just the technique · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory + 7 more

Pause and label present bias before acting · Activate the pause-and-plan response before acting · Treat your decision as more final than it is + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Always ask what happens next after the obvious effect · Ask “and then what?” three times · Design logical consequences that are directly related to the behavior + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Flip the default in the direction you want to move · Reframe “doing nothing” as an active choice with consequences + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reset your reference point when a goal stalls · Shift goal emphasis under adversity + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · Always name the specific thing you are giving up + 7 more

Simplify complex choices to prevent comparison fatigue from enabling decoys · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Pre-commit to a hard option limit + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Choice Overload, Made Practical + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions + 7 more

Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Sanity-check against known extremes · Decompose the unknown into knowable sub-problems + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment + 7 more

Check whether a third option is changing your view of the original two · Recognize when contrast is being used on you · Understanding and managing the lure of alternatives + 7 more

Build an anti-goal checklist · Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Identify the balancing loops that resist your change efforts + 7 more

Define "important" explicitly as a team · Mapping shared and divergent values in a relationship · Learn the dream inside your partner's position + 7 more

Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty · Apply several models to the same problem at once + 7 more

Turn top risks into tripwires · Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · Analogical Reasoning · Check for false analogies: does the structural mapping actually hold? + 7 more

Calculate the expected value of gathering more information · Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty · Adjust raw expected value for risk aversion on large stakes + 7 more

Accept positive-EV decisions even when they feel uncomfortable · Zoom out from the single loss to the aggregate · Use the DCA system to override market fear + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) + 7 more

Stocks and Flows · Use flow rates as leading indicators; stocks as lagging outcomes · Map your key stocks and flows + 7 more

Price the cost of keeping options open · Prefer positions with optionality over positions with precision · Settling on purpose + 7 more

Invite an adversarial collaborator · Use Collaborating when the relationship and the solution both matter · Collaborating (assertive and cooperative) + 7 more

Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Use social norm messages to shift behavior + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Offload peripheral information to free working memory + 7 more

Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you · Search deliberately for the black swan · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See + 7 more

Correct for “identified victim” over-weighting · Resist the identifiable victim effect by keeping statistics in view · Make the harm visible through an impact statement + 7 more

Always name the specific thing you are giving up · The graceful no · Maintain an explicit "no" list for categories of commitments + 7 more

Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty + 7 more

Separate the quality of the decision from the outcome · Score decision quality separately from outcome quality · Judge decisions by the process, not the result + 7 more

Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them · Share tasks equitably — and feel equitable about it · Apply the 80/20 rule + 7 more

Discount your estimate to create a margin · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Making the simpler choice deliberately · The subtraction practice + 7 more

Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Think in probabilities, not certainties · Think and communicate in explicit probabilities + 7 more

Check whether a third option is changing your view of the original two · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Judge decisions by the process, not the result + 7 more

Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Choose maximize or satisfice per decision · Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Move fast on two-way doors · Check reversibility before you fear the downside + 7 more

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Made Usable · Notice which system is driving · Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Expert-explanation comparison · Protect expert intuitive response from rule-reversion under pressure + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Escalate the amount gradually with income · Automate savings and investments before the money hits checking + 7 more

Steelman the strategy opposite to the successful one · Find the strongest version of the opposing view · Steelmanning + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Distinguish uncertainty (quantifiable) from ignorance (unquantifiable) · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty + 7 more

State the goal, then invert it · Don’t criticize, condemn, or complain · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored · Survivorship Bias: Learning from What You Can’t See · Audit whether your information sources systematically favor survivors + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Explore the implications and consequences of a position · Change who gets what information when + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly + 7 more

Decide whether you’re optimizing for experience or for memory · Track how you actually feel during experiences, not just afterward · The fly-on-the-wall replay + 7 more

Slow down belief updates triggered by alarming news · Avoid active-destructive responding · Repair a poor response + 7 more

Leverage Points · Recover promotion-focus motivation through approach-reminders after setbacks · Recover from setbacks without quitting the goal + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Negotiate the big wins instead of clipping coupons + 7 more

Surface and test the mental models driving behavior · Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Diagnose before elaborating + 7 more

Check units and scales for consistency · Sanity-check against known extremes · Translate scale into numbers before you respond + 7 more

The Outside View · The view from above — cosmic perspective · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan + 7 more

Actively watch for escalation of commitment · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision + 7 more

Log actual vs. estimated time for every task · Track your estimates and calibrate · Check units and scales for consistency + 7 more

Slow down belief updates triggered by alarming news · Run a weekly preview before the week begins · Default new requests to tomorrow + 7 more

The Two-Way Door · Align your sleep window with the circadian gate · Keep screens out of the bedroom + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Price the cost of keeping options open + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Calibration Training · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek information that disconfirms your view · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Override recognition and deliberate when the situation is genuinely novel · Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice: set a good-enough threshold and stop searching when you hit it · Set a “good enough” bar before you search + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Deliberately increase the surface area for serendipity + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · The Pareto Principle: 80/20 for Personal Productivity + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Use similarity to connect, not to seek validation · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Errorful Learning: Why Making Mistakes Strengthens Memory · Receive corrective feedback promptly after a test attempt + 7 more

Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments · Reference Class Forecasting + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Name the affect before you reason from it · Default to the charitable interpretation first · Personalization and self-blame + 7 more

Run the basic pre-mortem · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the vaccination model: compare population outcomes, not individual paths + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Check whether your judgment is tracking affect, not the target attribute · Name the affect before you reason from it + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log · Calibration Training + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Question your own objectivity explicitly + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Master your stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · Run the basic pre-mortem + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Rate each failure by likelihood and impact · Circle your top 5 without negotiating · Maintain at most three active priorities at one time + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Specify the when and where for every goal action + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight + 7 more

Hold models loosely · Fierce protection: say "no" from care, not fear · Using anatta to reduce defensive reactivity + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Deliberately underschedule your day to prevent expansion cascade · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week + 7 more

Apply the regret minimization frame · Name the values the regret is about · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

State your prior probability before seeing the evidence · State your estimate before encountering vivid case information · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Rank intervention options by structural depth before choosing · Find the high-leverage intervention point · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Surface the source of urgency before accepting it · Separate urgent from important with a dedicated triage window · Eliminate or delegate Quadrant 3 activities + 7 more

Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before you start · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Generous Interpretation · Know when generosity becomes denial + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice instead of maximize · Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Track your estimates and calibrate + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · VO2 max intervals · Space reviews at increasing intervals after each successful retrieval + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds + 7 more

Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates · Maintain a scored prediction log · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Precommitment Devices (Ulysses Contracts) · Use commitment devices to make future behavior harder to avoid + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Systems Thinking for Personal Productivity + 7 more