思考と意思決定に関するコーチングの悩み

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more

Run the basic pre-mortem · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments · Reference Class Forecasting + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

Hold models loosely · Fierce protection: say "no" from care, not fear · Using anatta to reduce defensive reactivity + 7 more

Use precommitment devices to lock in future behavior from a patient vantage point · Precommitment Devices (Ulysses Contracts) · Use commitment devices to make future behavior harder to avoid + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Question your own objectivity explicitly + 7 more

Expect regression to the mean in extreme outcomes · The Ben Franklin Effect, Made Practical · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Sanity-check against known extremes · Use precise, non-round numbers in final offers · Check units and scales for consistency + 7 more

The Two-Way Door · The Regret-Minimization Framework · Move fast on two-way doors + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them · Walk down the ladder together in disagreements + 7 more

The Regret-Minimization Framework · Name the values the regret is about · Filter decisions through "what would future me thank me for?" + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear + 7 more

Judge decisions by the process, not the result · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome · Notice and drop "should" language + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Look for what your map omits · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Use reverse brainstorming to find failure modes · State the goal, then invert it · Make them solve the implementation for you + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Price the cost of keeping options open + 7 more

Solve by subtraction · Change exactly one element and observe what shifts · Ruthlessly edit projects in progress + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Build plans with slack for outcomes outside your model + 7 more

Leverage Points · Identify high-leverage points rather than effort-intensive low-leverage ones · Find the high-leverage intervention point + 7 more

Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Cut costs mercilessly on things you don’t value · The depletion pause: when the envelope empties, stop and review before borrowing + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Use "take the best": choose on your single most informative cue · Resolving a decision with two competing values + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Margin of Safety · Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Know and mark the edges of your circle + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Apply the razor to yourself + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Test each component probability separately · Anchor on base rates before adding details + 7 more

Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Calculate the ongoing cost of delay + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions + 7 more

Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Pause before attributing intent + 7 more

Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence + 7 more

Red-team joint scenarios before betting on them · Test each component probability separately · Audit plans for scenario inflation + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Generate the counterfactual outcome · Evaluate decisions by process, not outcome + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation · Run a premortem before committing + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Identify what the narrative leaves out · Separate the data from the narrative you’ve built around it + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Deliberately invoke the outside view for important decisions + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Interrupt runaway negative feedback loops before they become self-reinforcing + 7 more

Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Apply the 40% rule when you want to quit · Build buffer stocks for resilience + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Practice third-order perspective-taking · Kegan’s Subject-Object Theory, Made Practical + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored + 7 more

Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” + 7 more

Circle of Competence · Expand the circle deliberately, not aspirationally · Stay inside for high-stakes, irreversible decisions + 7 more

Think and communicate in explicit probabilities · Make your beliefs precise enough to be wrong · Pre-commit to resolution criteria before making a prediction + 7 more

Appoint an explicit devil’s advocate role · Engage in productive ideological conflict · Teach speak-up skills, not just encourage speaking up + 7 more

Run small bets to convert ambiguity into data · Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Uncertainty Tolerance Training + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Buffer and overflow blocks · Deliberately underschedule your day to prevent expansion cascade + 7 more

Conduct a randomness audit of outcomes you’re explaining · Distinguish skill from luck in outcomes · Run a structured mastery debrief after each performance + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Appear confident even when you don’t feel it · Signal credibility without claiming it + 7 more

Track recurring domains where you consistently avoid the unfamiliar · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Think and communicate in explicit probabilities · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Move fast on two-way doors + 7 more

Separate the consensus view from the correct one · Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Anticipate others’ reactions + 7 more

Reference Class Forecasting · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Identify the right reference class for your situation + 7 more

Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Calibrate expectations for how long novelty will sustain motivation · Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Modify and Magnify · Catastrophizing (magnification and jumping to conclusions) + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reset your reference point when a goal stalls · Shift goal emphasis under adversity + 7 more

Treat small samples with explicit skepticism · Recognize that random sequences don’t "owe" balance · Expect extreme results to regress toward average + 7 more

Price the cost of keeping options open · Settling on purpose · Embracing necessary missing-out + 7 more

Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing · Name the fear driving an avoidance goal · Treat failed attempts as constraint-locators rather than dead ends + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Write a brief final accounting · Memento mori as the ultimate premeditation + 7 more

Maintain a belief-tracking log with timestamps · State a prediction before looking at the outcome · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Map the feedback loop · Manage your inputs and influences · Actively watch for escalation of commitment + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Pair the pre-mortem with a clear success vision · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Reverse brainstorm: solve the opposite problem first + 7 more

Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation · Know when not to apply the razor · Apply parsimony to your own communication + 7 more

Decompose the target attribute into components before judging · Decompose complex questions into sub-questions · Name the question your brain is actually answering + 7 more

Pre-commit to resolution criteria before making a prediction · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Beware false precision in forecasts and models + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Ask “and then what?” three times · Pre-commit to agentic responses with if-then plans + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Name your model explicitly · Look for what your map omits + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Name your model explicitly · Look for what your map omits + 7 more

Trim model complexity · Constantly distinguish the map from the territory · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong · Actively seek disconfirming evidence + 7 more

Classify every decision as one-way or two-way before starting · Treat your decision as more final than it is · Check reversibility before you fear the downside + 7 more

State a prediction before looking at the outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Notice and drop "should" language + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain + 7 more

Scope Insensitivity: Why Scale Doesn’t Change Your Feelings · Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them + 7 more

Track recurring domains where you consistently avoid the unfamiliar · Use avoidance orientation as a diagnostic signal · Understand the cycle you’re both in -- not just what your partner does + 7 more

The Planning Fallacy — Why Your Estimates Are Always Wrong · Use reference class forecasting for project estimates · Reference class forecasting + 7 more

Check reversibility before you fear the downside · Treat your decision as more final than it is · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

The Conjunction Fallacy — When "More Details" Feels More Likely · Consult an outside observer to counteract narrative pull · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Shift from negative to positive orientation toward uncertainty · Uncertainty Tolerance Training + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Spot bad faith in yourself · Ensure the first commitment feels freely chosen + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Edit your choice environment upstream · Choice Overload, Made Practical + 7 more

Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Look for decisions with asymmetric upside — large potential gain, small defined loss + 7 more

The Eisenhower Matrix for Teams · Run a regular team elimination review · The Eisenhower Matrix and Delegation + 7 more

Define "important" explicitly as a team · Mapping shared and divergent values in a relationship · Learn the dream inside your partner's position + 7 more

Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty · Apply several models to the same problem at once + 7 more

Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Notice which data you selected — and which you ignored + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week · Protecting unscheduled time + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Defer heavily to base rates when entering a domain where you lack experience + 7 more

Anchor your confidence level on base rates, not gut feel · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Extend trust deliberately to invite it · Default to the charitable interpretation first + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Save admin tasks for your cognitive trough · Protect genuinely idle time from task-filling + 7 more

Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Check units and scales for consistency · Scope Insensitivity: Why Scale Doesn’t Change Your Feelings + 7 more

Always name the specific thing you are giving up · The graceful no · Say no clearly and without over-explaining + 7 more

Design decisions so they work even if some things go wrong · Use reverse brainstorming to find failure modes · Create psychological safety around missing a stretch target + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Separate the consensus view from the correct one · Blue hat: manage the thinking process itself + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Check whether a memory is accurate before using it as evidence · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly + 7 more

Reframe the inaction as a positive act · Replace commands with genuine choices · Revise global beliefs when they are genuinely wrong + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Practice probabilistic calibration by tracking your predictions · Make your beliefs precise enough to be wrong + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions · Notice which system is driving + 7 more

Use the 10-year horizon as a regret test · Audit whether you are living your life or someone else’s · Project to age 80 and look back + 7 more

Admit uncertainty out loud, especially in your own domain · Say "I don’t know" when you genuinely don’t · Be Truthful: no lies, no exaggerations, no manufactured helplessness + 7 more

Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Check the outside view before trusting the inside view · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Consider the opposite · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment · Examine the evidence for and against + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Name your model explicitly · Look for what your map omits + 7 more

Adjust raw expected value for risk aversion on large stakes · Accept positive-EV decisions even when they feel uncomfortable · Protect the downside before chasing the upside + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Audit which constraints are real and which are assumed + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Elicit your own tacit knowledge by working through cases · Protect expert intuitive response from rule-reversion under pressure + 7 more

Separate "many people worry about X" from "X is actually likely" · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Action Planning + 7 more

Pause and label present bias before acting · Recognize present bias as a feature of the mind, not a moral failure · Remove temptations from the environment rather than resisting them + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Use expert endorsement for high-stakes decisions · Recognition-Primed Decision Making + 7 more

Availability Cascades: How Fears Spread and Inflate · Recognize when a concern is being socially amplified · Separate "many people worry about X" from "X is actually likely" + 7 more

Stocks and Flows · Build the inflow before trying to stop the outflow · Build buffer stocks for resilience + 7 more

Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment + 7 more

Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number · Monitor for cumulative pessimism becoming self-fulfilling · The premortem (imagine the project already failed) + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Set the default deliberately · Slow down on one-way doors + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Stocks and Flows · Use flow rates as leading indicators; stocks as lagging outcomes · Identify the stocks before diagnosing a problem + 7 more

Appoint an explicit devil’s advocate role · Disagree with your manager constructively · Apply Dennett’s four rules for critical commentary + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable · Stress test plans against outcomes beyond the historical range + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · Estimate in ranges, not point estimates · Calibration Training + 7 more

Build an anti-goal checklist · Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange + 7 more

Build buffer stocks for resilience · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week · Schedule buffers as first-class commitments + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Know when generosity becomes denial · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work · Build room for error (margin of safety) · Map and stress-test your key assumptions + 7 more

Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Check reversibility before you fear the downside · The seventh-generation test for decisions + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Reduce the number of options to increase follow-through · Limit the option set deliberately + 7 more

Separate your identity from the investment · Redirect symbolic immortality into genuine contribution · Make a small public commitment that locks in the identity + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Run small bets to convert ambiguity into data + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium + 7 more

Audit plans for scenario inflation · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Plan for obstacles with coping plans + 7 more

Name the prototype you’re comparing against before deciding · Status Quo Bias — Why We Stick with the Default · Question your own objectivity explicitly + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Look for what your map omits · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

Classify every decision as one-way or two-way before starting · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate + 7 more

Run a weekly decision review session · Log the decision before the outcome · Use the journal to externalize decisions you are stuck on + 7 more

The Regret-Minimization Framework · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check · Weigh action regret against inaction regret + 7 more

The Regret-Minimization Framework · Name the values the regret is about · Weigh action regret against inaction regret + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Anchor on the base rate before adding inside-view details + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Generous Interpretation + 7 more

Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Calibration Training · Calibration practice + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Distinguish the word from the thing · Question your own objectivity explicitly · Develop a shared vocabulary for tacit distinctions + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity + 7 more

Stress test plans against outcomes beyond the historical range · Plan how to prevent each worst case · Decatastrophize with the worst/best/likely frame + 7 more

Set stop-loss policies before starting projects · Zoom out from the single loss to the aggregate · Use the DCA system to override market fear + 7 more

Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution · Shift identity from self-concept to awareness itself · Respond to identity threats without self-concept collapse + 7 more

Pre-commit to resolution criteria before making a prediction · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Form a testable prediction before you act + 7 more

Commit and stop re-evaluating · Ask: “Would I choose this today if I were starting fresh?” · Treat your decision as more final than it is + 7 more

Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Actively seek disconfirming cases + 7 more

Build an anti-goal checklist · Turn top risks into tripwires · Separate competence from performance + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Maintain a scored prediction log + 7 more

Design responses in proportion to actual scale before the emotion sets them · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once + 7 more

Translate scale into numbers before you respond · Check units and scales for consistency · Reframe a cost against a larger, legitimate reference point + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives · Reference Class Forecasting · Update beliefs frequently and in small increments + 7 more

Build the inflow before trying to stop the outflow · Use flow rates as leading indicators; stocks as lagging outcomes · Stocks and Flows + 7 more

The Map Is Not the Territory · Look for what your map omits · Name your model explicitly + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Avoiding (unassertive, uncooperative) · Systematically process the backlog + 7 more

Leverage Points · Beat the snooze (the wake-up application) · Prevent bedtime creep: protect sleep duration at the start, not just the end + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs · Always name the specific thing you are giving up + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Engineer strong endings for experiences and interactions + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Judgments of Learning: Why You Misjudge What You’ve Learned · Consider the opposite before finalizing a judgment + 7 more

Find a truth-seeking group that argues with you · Apply Socratic questioning to your own thinking (not just others’) · Examine the evidence for and against the thought + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Use inversion as the first model in every problem · Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach + 7 more

Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Always generate a guess before receiving the correct answer · Estimate conservatively and act on the conservative number + 7 more

Optimize for avoiding stupidity, not brilliance · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes · Set default rules for willpower-intense situations + 7 more

Reference Class Forecasting · Conduct post-project debriefs to contribute to the class data · Update your forecast incrementally as new evidence arrives + 7 more

Know when intuition is unreliable · Slow down on one-way doors · Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions + 7 more

Explicitly distinguish coherence from probability · Strip the narrative and restate as a bare frequency claim · Test each component probability separately + 7 more

Maintain a personal model catalog with examples · Collect models deliberately from fields outside your specialty · Mental Models: Charlie Munger’s Latticework Approach + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Accumulate behavioral disconfirmation · Behavioral Experiments: Testing Beliefs in the Real World + 7 more

Build the inflow before trying to stop the outflow · Respect stock momentum: do not expect fast reversals · Identify the stocks before diagnosing a problem + 7 more

Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Beliefs Rationally · Update beliefs incrementally, not all at once · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

State the goal, then invert it · Go for quantity first · Use inversion as the first model in every problem + 7 more

Invite an adversarial collaborator · Find a truth-seeking group that argues with you · Ask what alternative perspectives would say + 7 more

Second-Order Thinking: And Then What? · Ask “and then what?” three times · Anticipate others’ reactions + 7 more

Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Enumerate scenarios and their probabilities before deciding · Expected Value Thinking: Deciding Under Uncertainty + 7 more

Margin of Safety · Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Protect the downside before chasing the upside + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Check the outside view before trusting the inside view + 7 more

Find the high-leverage intervention point · Surface and test the mental models driving behavior · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Ambiguity Aversion — Why Unknown Odds Feel Worse Than Bad Odds · Update incrementally as evidence arrives rather than waiting for certainty + 7 more

Superforecasting · Use structured team forecasting to aggregate diverse views · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Slow down for high-stakes, irreversible decisions · Move fast on two-way doors · Classify decisions by reversibility and stakes + 7 more

Run a regular team elimination review · Eliminate Q4 tasks systematically · Run a weekly leadership team meeting focused on strategic issues + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Ask the base rate before evaluating the specific case · Always identify the denominator when evaluating risk or success + 7 more

Separate the quality of the decision from the outcome · Thinking in Bets · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment + 7 more

Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions · Slow down on one-way doors · Track your calibration across many predictions + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Build a new cue–behavior association for habits you want to start + 7 more

Apply extra scrutiny when a choice feels obviously good · Watch for the signatures of overconfidence · Ask 'What am I missing?' before major decisions + 7 more

Surface and test the mental models driving behavior · Separate the person from the problem · Develop second-tier, systems-level thinking + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Document key agreements in writing across the style gap · Add explicit framing when communicating with low-context people + 7 more

Recognize which decisions to defer or delegate · Reduce daily decisions to protect self-control · Edit your choice environment upstream + 7 more

Convert emotional reactions to statistical questions · Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Correct for “identified victim” over-weighting + 7 more

Track your information exposure and adjust for its biases · Frame the attribute positively · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Track the accuracy of your domain predictions · Signal credibility without claiming it · Structured reflection on performance + 7 more

Separate “the world is uncertain here” from “I don’t know enough yet” · Distinguish risk from ambiguity before reacting · Use maximin reasoning for high-stakes, irreversible decisions under ambiguity + 7 more

The Outside View · Invoke the outside view before committing to any significant plan · Ask what a specific other person would do + 7 more

Disagree and commit on two-way doors · Map what you actually agree on before diving into the disagreement · Disagree with your manager constructively + 7 more

Seek expert technical risk estimates — but note where values legitimately differ · Calibrate dread against statistical frequency · Compare the feared risk to risks you already accept + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Separate the person from the problem · Transform the relationship, not just the issue + 7 more

Check whether you’re demanding an unfair ambiguity premium · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Redesign option order to exploit position bias + 7 more

Combine the pre-mortem with red team pressure · Establish learner safety — making mistakes without punishment · Use reverse brainstorming to find failure modes + 7 more

Structure the analysis before searching for evidence · Verify the root cause by tracing back up the chain · Branch the chain when you find multiple causes + 7 more

Separate the quality of the decision from the outcome · Score decision quality separately from outcome quality · Judge decisions by the process, not the result + 7 more

Set external accountability deadlines · Self-imposed deadlines · Use structured self-compassion after delay — not self-criticism + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse and Rearrange · Fight the problem, not each other + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Pre-commit to a rule before the loss is live · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision + 7 more

Stocks and Flows · Map your key stocks and flows · Build buffer stocks for resilience + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Be skeptical of clean lessons extracted from messy outcomes · Extend trust deliberately to invite it + 7 more

Calculate the expected value of gathering more information · Frame major decisions as experiments rather than commitments · Consider the opposite + 7 more

Separate "many people worry about X" from "X is actually likely" · Find the actual incidence rate before acting on fear · Ask: what is the actual probability? + 7 more

Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · The 10-10-10 Rule · Use the 10-year view to check values alignment + 7 more

Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Distinguish sunk costs from future opportunity costs + 7 more

Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Put stakes on your beliefs — even hypothetically · Think in probabilities, not certainties + 7 more

Build in slack — time, money, and energy buffers · Build buffer stocks for resilience · Build in buffer + 7 more

Opportunity Cost Thinking: What You Give Up When You Choose · Always name the specific thing you are giving up · Price the cost of keeping options open + 7 more

Run a single weekly priority-setting meeting · Establish an explicit delegation protocol for Q3 tasks · Set a Monday Vision each week + 7 more

Strengthen corrective loops and weaken runaway ones · Actively watch for escalation of commitment · Identify and exit contagious time traps + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Plan behavior management strategies in advance · Audit work hours against your stated priorities + 7 more

Run a pre-mortem before you start · Write reasons independently before discussing · Use feedforward to align team members on goals before projects begin + 7 more

Actively seek out the failures you aren’t seeing · Actively seek disconfirming cases · Ask for the failure rate before celebrating the success rate + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Calibration Training · Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek disconfirming evidence · Actively seek evidence that would prove you wrong + 7 more

Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome · Generate the counterfactual outcome + 7 more

Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Actively seek information that disconfirms your view · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Override recognition and deliberate when the situation is genuinely novel · Conduct premortems on your past recognition failures + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice: set a good-enough threshold and stop searching when you hit it · Set a “good enough” bar before you search + 7 more

Watch for lollapalooza effects — multiple models pointing the same direction · Correct for the recency amplification of availability · Deliberately increase the surface area for serendipity + 7 more

The 10-10-10 Rule · Calibrate the time horizons to the actual decision · The Pareto Principle: 80/20 for Personal Productivity + 7 more

Hyperbolic Discounting — Why Future You Always Gets the Short End · Make your future self vivid to reduce psychological distance · Name your present bias before you buy + 7 more

Weigh action regret against inaction regret · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets · Apply the regret minimization frame + 7 more

Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Expect to See · Use similarity to connect, not to seek validation · Deliberately seek out sources that disagree with you + 7 more

Treat forecasting accuracy as a skill that improves with practice · Errorful Learning: Why Making Mistakes Strengthens Memory · Receive corrective feedback promptly after a test attempt + 7 more

Generate the counterfactual outcome · Hindsight Bias: Why Everything Seems Obvious in Retrospect · Log probability estimates before the outcome + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the outcome equivalence test · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

Walk down the ladder together in disagreements · The Ladder of Inference · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight · Reframe the inaction as a positive act + 7 more

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Escaping Bad Investments · Separate the sunk cost from the next decision · Zero out past investment before evaluating the forward decision + 7 more

Name the affect before you reason from it · Default to the charitable interpretation first · Personalization and self-blame + 7 more

Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Apply the vaccination model: compare population outcomes, not individual paths + 7 more

The Affect Heuristic — When Feelings Substitute for Facts · Check whether your judgment is tracking affect, not the target attribute · Name the affect before you reason from it + 7 more

Calibration Training · Identify the specific domains where you are most overconfident · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions + 7 more

Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Maintain a scored prediction log · Calibration Training + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before committing to a plan + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

The Ladder of Inference · Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Test conclusions before acting on them + 7 more

Treat your decision as more final than it is · Reduce opportunity-cost thinking · Revisit and reconcile your significant regrets + 7 more

The Narrative Fallacy: Why We Can’t Stop Making Stories · Master your stories · Generate alternative histories for past outcomes + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective · Run the basic pre-mortem + 7 more

Rate each failure by likelihood and impact · Circle your top 5 without negotiating · Maintain at most three active priorities at one time + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Hanlon's Razor: Never Attribute to Malice What Stupidity Can Explain · Update your attribution when evidence warrants + 7 more

Inversion: Solve Problems Backward · Reverse the problem to break fixation · Solve by subtraction + 7 more

Calibration Training · Build calibration reps with low-stakes trivia and almanac questions · Calibrated Questions, Made Practical + 7 more

Set if-then implementation intentions for goal behaviors · Write when, where, and how plans for every behavioral goal · Specify the when and where for every goal action + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Surface and test underlying assumptions · Surface the hidden premises + 7 more

Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly · Identify that inaction is also a choice with moral weight + 7 more

Choice Overload, Made Practical · Limit the option set deliberately · Edit your choice environment upstream + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Question the question itself + 7 more

Track your estimates and calibrate · Fermi Estimation · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Schedule buffers as first-class commitments · Deliberately underschedule your day to prevent expansion cascade · Build buffer blocks into the ideal week + 7 more

Recognition-Primed Decision Making · Decision Journaling: Learning to Decide Better Over Time · Thinking in Bets + 7 more

Apply the regret minimization frame · Name the values the regret is about · Use regret minimization as a forward-looking check + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Interrogate whether similarity is doing the work · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment + 7 more

Surface and examine the assumptions you are making · Separate facts from assumptions explicitly · Name the assumptions that must hold for the plan to work + 7 more

The Peak-End Rule — How Memory Distorts Experience · Savor positive peaks in real time to encode them more strongly · Identify and amplify the emotional peak of an experience + 7 more

Thinking in Bets · Translate beliefs into bets to reveal your true confidence · Update beliefs explicitly when new information arrives + 7 more

Beware false precision in forecasts and models · Distinguish cognitive optimism bias from strategic misrepresentation · Forecast a distribution, not a point estimate + 7 more

The Representativeness Heuristic — Judging by Resemblance · Look up base rates before forming a resemblance judgment · Audit person-judgments for prototype substitution + 7 more

The Pre-Mortem: Imagine It Already Failed · Run a premortem before committing · Write a brief final accounting + 7 more

Recognize genuine exceptions — when malice is actually likely · Default to the charitable interpretation first · The accusation audit + 7 more

State your prior probability before seeing the evidence · State your estimate before encountering vivid case information · Update beliefs by degrees, not wholesale + 7 more

Fermi Estimation · Track your estimates and calibrate · Sanity-check against known extremes + 7 more

Rank intervention options by structural depth before choosing · Find the high-leverage intervention point · Change what the system is optimizing for + 7 more

Surface the source of urgency before accepting it · Separate urgent from important with a dedicated triage window · Eliminate or delegate Quadrant 3 activities + 7 more

Run a premortem before committing · Run a pre-mortem before you start · Run a pre-mortem from the outside-view perspective + 7 more

Update your attribution when evidence warrants · Generous Interpretation · Know when generosity becomes denial + 7 more

Satisficing vs. Maximizing: When “Good Enough” Wins · Satisfice instead of maximize · Adopt satisficing instead of maximizing + 7 more

The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · Actively search for what you are not thinking about + 7 more

Calibration Training · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use · Track your estimates and calibrate + 7 more

Practice confidence interval estimation · VO2 max intervals · Space reviews at increasing intervals after each successful retrieval + 7 more

Trace second-order effects of inaction · Omission Bias — Why Doing Nothing Feels Safer Than Acting · Audit the cost of inaction explicitly + 7 more

Identify the reinforcing and balancing loops · Feedback Loops and Behavior Change · Change who gets what information when + 7 more

Check the actual base rate before trusting your intuitive estimate · The Availability Heuristic: Why Memorable Feels Probable · Base-Rate Neglect: Why We Ignore the Odds + 7 more

The Ludic Fallacy: When You Mistake Real Life for a Game · Question whether the category you’re reasoning from actually fits · Check whether the rules of your domain are actually stable + 7 more

Keep a decision journal to score your EV estimates · Maintain a scored prediction log · Score your own past predictions to calibrate your outside-view use + 7 more

Apply parsimony to your own communication · Occam’s Razor: Prefer the Simpler Explanation · Know when not to apply the razor + 7 more